Predictions
Best supporting actor
Will win:
Robert Downey Jr. in “Oppenheimer.” Should win: Robert Downey Jr. Why: He’s been a lock from the time “Oppenheimer” opened in theaters the same day as “Barbie.” Though honestly, every actor in this category was good, and I enjoyed Sterling K. Brown’s performance in “American Fiction” as much or more than any of them.
Wild card: Ryan Gosling as Ken in “Barbie” may have a slim chance, but it’s whisper thin.
Best supporting actress
Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph in “The Holdovers.”
Should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Why: See supporting actor, above. She’s won every lead-up award for her performance as a grieving mother stuck at a snooty boarding school over Christmas. No chance that streak ends at the Oscars.
Wild card: Emily Blunt is great (though mostly in one scene) in “Oppenheimer,” but the only way she wins is if people vote straight ticket for the movie.
Best actor
Will win: Cillian Murphy for “Oppenheimer.”
Should win: Cillian Murphy.
Why: His work in the title role is just a cool, weird performance. He looks haunted from the get-go, true, but his growing horror at what he has unleashed on the world — and the price he pays for it — feels real and earned.
Wild card: Paul Giamatti in “The Holdovers” has a shot. It’s the kind of performance the Oscars love, as they say, and everyone loves him. His walleyed, foul-smelling, hangnail of a classics teacher charts a course toward redemption, and the ride is enjoyable.
Best actress
Will win: Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon.”
Should win: Lily Gladstone. Why:This is a race. Gladstone and Emma Stone, gleefully deranged in “Poor Things,” have been divvying up the pre-Oscar awards. Their performances could not be farther apart — Gladstone is all quiet dignity and power, doing a lot with a little, while Stone is unhinged id, a prime example of the toomuch-is-never-enough school of acting. Both are great.
Wild card: It’s one or the other, that’s
it.
Best director
Will win:
Should win: Christopher Nolan. Why: Have you seen “Oppenheimer?” Nolan, as is his wont, tells a story we know the end to out of order, playing with time, perspective, film stock and more. It’s a juggling act on the surface,
Christopher Nolan for “Oppenheimer.”
art just beneath.
Wild card: Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest” is a tremendous achievement, a technical marvel with feeling. But this is Nolan’s year.
Best movie
Will win: “Oppenheimer.”
Should win: “Past Lives.” But I’m OK with “Oppenheimer.”
Why: “Past Lives” was my favorite movie of 2023, but there is no denying that “Oppenheimer” is a brilliant film. It’s reminiscent of “Citizen Kane” in a way — sure, it’s a great technical exercise and its reputation might scare people off, but it’s also entertaining as all get out once you sit down and watch it. And it has contemporary political lessons for anyone willing to learn them.
Wild card: “Poor Things,” maybe, but it would be a massive upset for the ages.
Reach Goodykoontz at bill.goodykoontz@arizonarepublic.com. Facebook: facebook.com/GoodyOnFilm. X: @goodyk. Subscribe to the weekly movies newsletter.