Arizona GOP is on the ropes, and not just on abortion
To absolutely no one’s surprise, the drive to enshrine the right to an abortion in the Arizona Constitution is making like a freight train as it thunders toward the November ballot.
Backers of the Arizona Abortion Access Act announced last week that they’ve collected more than 500,000 signatures — with a goal of turning in double the 383,923 needed to earn a spot on the ballot.
As the swing state of Arizona charges into a crucial election season, fate appears to be smiling on the Democratic Party that, until a few years ago, was basically a nonentity in statewide politics.
For that, Democrats have Donald Trump to thank. That, and the hardright’s takeover of both the Republican Party and the U.S. Supreme Court.
Unless abortion foes can figure out a way to derail it, the Arizona Abortion Access Act appears a slam dunk to make the ballot.
The proposal confers the constitutional right to an abortion until the point of fetal viability, around 24 weeks, but it also would allow abortion beyond that if a doctor deems it necessary to protect the physical or mental health of the mother.
Its placement on the November ballot seems likely to boost voter turnout for Democrats, which is no small thing in a battleground state that Joe Biden won by just 0.3%.
And if the Arizona Supreme Court reinstates the 1864 territorial law that criminalizes abortion, a decision that could come any day now?
Well then, whoa. Republicans will be facing a full-on five-alarm fire, one that could consume their grip on the state Legislature.
Of course, GOP legislators could have taken a giant target off their backs by repealing that 1864 abortion law, ensuring that the 15-week ban they passed in 2022 remains in effect.
Polling shows Arizona voters support a woman’s right to choose to a certain point, and Republicans could have made the case that 15 weeks is a fair compromise.
But because the hard right runs the Legislature, that 1864 ban remains on the books, leaving the state Supreme Court to sort it out.
Republican political strategists shake their heads at that.
“These are losing issues for them,”
Republican consultant Tyler Montague told me. “They should have repealed that 1800s law and let the 15week ban stand. Now they are going to get the ballot initiative backlash they earned for not being strategic thinkers on the issue.”
“See Cathi Herrod,” said longtime GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin, referring to the conservative Center for Arizona Policy’s president. “True Believers are extremists.”
With abortion front and center on the ballot, Republican candidates will have to take a stand.
That’s a tricky thing, given that reproductive rights have passed in every state where the issue has been put to a public vote, including conservative
states like Ohio and Kansas.
Consider Kari Lake’s rather painful contortions. She who just two years ago called abortion the “ultimate sin” and called that 1864 law a “great law” now says she wouldn’t vote to ban abortion.
Expect to see similar wiggling from Republican lawmakers.
Republicans who could have — should have — helped themselves by at least trying to minimize the coming backlash.
Instead, they’ve scaled back their work at the state Capitol to one day a week, having accomplished nothing this year.
This, so they can get on the campaign trail to tell us why they should continue to control the Legislature.
Sure, that makes sense.