The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Braves shifting tactics (gradually)
Adjusted infields rising in majors, but some still dispute effectiveness.
You won’t find Noah Woodward’s picture among the hundreds in the Braves’ media directory, nor would you single him out of a crowd unless you have an Opie Taylor fetish. He is 23, bonds with a computer in the basement at Turner Field, rarely gets outside and wouldn’t rather be doing anything else.
Not quite kicking and screaming but not exactly joy-riding either, the Braves have joined the 21st century this spring, adopting an analytic approach to infield positioning and if you haven’t noticed — OK, April has had its complexities — maybe you’re not paying attention.
Last season, the Braves overshifted their infield 470 times, which ranked the second-fewest in the majors, according to statistics compiled by FanGraphs. In their first 14 games this season, through Wednesday, the Braves overloaded their infield deployment 101 times, putting them on pace for 1,169 shifts this season.
Not that that breaks the bank. Seven clubs overshifted their infields at least 1,000 times last season, but the trend is booming. Just five years ago, there were just 2,350 instances of infield shifting
across the majors. This year, with Houston at the forefront, there may be 30,000.
Last winter, the Braves determined — correctly — they need any help they can get and signed on. And Woodward, as chief compiler of all data on all baseballs pitched and struck, has become an unlikely point man.
“I’ve been wanting to do this since I was 10 years old,” he said.
Woodward was a callow intern with the Orioles in November when Braves general manager John Coppolella, reviewing data from the 2015 season, focused on the club’s reluctance to shift its infield (primarily stationing an extra fielder on the right side).
“By a lot of estimates run by our analytics group, it cost us close to 50 runs,” Coppolella said. “If you say every 10 runs is a win, that’s five wins. And we’re trying to find ways to get more and more wins. It was a way for us to improve. … It’d be foolish on our part not to try to explore that opportunity.”
While the rise of a corps of dominant young pitchers has been a primary contributor, research also indicates recent slumping offensive numbers across the majors have been affected by analytic-directed defensive positioning. Last season, the average major league team hit .254, the sixth consecutive season below .260 and the longest such streak since 1974. Which is how the shift has become the next big thing.
So 36 years after John Schuerholz hit town mandating that Braves defense starts up the middle, the team will occasionally skew the middle over to the second-base hole. While they might be better served aligning a defense that keeps their bullpen gate shut, this is the Braves’ biggest strategic revision during this season of change.
“We’re not going to be the favorites going into a lot of games. We know that,” said Billy Ryan, director of baseball operations. “Whether we’re projected to win 60 games or 100 games, you want every competitive advantage you can find. We’ve had the conversation with our staff many times that this is not a paint-by-number kind of deal. We’re going to give you the odds.”
This has not been universally embraced in the clubhouse.
“Actually,” first baseman Freddie Freeman said, “I feel like the shift gives up more hits than it saves.”
While scant early numbers are inconclusive — Woodward said opponents’ average against the shift is down — the organization’s commitment to the tactic was made clear during a locker-room meeting early in spring camp.
“It’s become second-nature now,” manager Fredi Gonzalez said. “I don’t know where we rank (17th-most frequent shifts in the majors), but that’s something we want to bring in. I’m glad it’s supposed to help us win games.”
Supposed. All the research down to Abner Doubleday’s hat size will not make a shift work if the pitcher du jour doesn’t locate the next pitch exactly where it has to be. A fastball up and away when the call was for down and inside is an opposite-field freebie single. This Braves staff does not exactly ooze that kind of reliability.
Ryan said analytics readouts are customized to include the pitchers’ weaknesses, too. Nevertheless, Freeman, who sees the shift as a hitter more than any Brave, feels the tactic may take away just one hit in 10 that would have gone through a straight-up alignment.
“People say it works awesome and love it,” Freeman said. “And then there’s other guys. Maybe I’m not a big fan of it because I have had a couple hits taken away from me in that situation. But it’s to each their own. If people are comfortable taking away that one hit out of 10 and letting those eight-hoppers go through, that’s whatever they want to do. That’s just my opinion.”
Welcome to Noah Woodward’s world. An economics major from Davidson, with additional study at the London School of Economics, he didn’t make the final cut for Davidson’s baseball team. But he maintained a scientific interest in the game and, following graduation, was contributing analysis pieces to the seamhead bible Baseball Prospectus, where some in the Braves front office first saw his name. He was hired on five months ago as major league operations analyst.
“I’ve always been into the numbers and always figured that could be my angle to get into baseball,” he said. “And I feel pretty lucky to get to.”
For research, he pulls from Baseball Info Solutions, the Pennsylvania-based stat service given much credit for the shift revolution. But more so, Woodward relies on TrackMan, the radar tracking device installed in all major league parks. TrackMan breaks down 27 components on each pitch — pitch spin rate, bat speed at contact, how long a batted ball stays in flight — that lend to analytic projections: who hits the ball where most often.
“The toughest thing about shifting is you want to make sure you’re customizing to the situation, that you’re not taking a cookie-cutter approach to doing it,” Woodward said. “I think with some of the information that’s out there, you’re kind of able to tailor the information to the situation. It’s something to leverage so that everyone feels comfortable.”
For each series, he and Rob Smith, who runs the Braves’ video operations, prepare an app with stat info that coaches can access via iPad. For the players’ advance meetings, the info is reviewed through a PowerPoint presentation. And if an unforeseen situation comes up during the game, Woodward remains at his post in the basement to handle questions run up from the dugout.
“I’m down here all the time,” he said.