The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Draft decision: needs vs. best player available
FLOWERY BRANCH — If the Falcons stay with the 17th pick in the NFL draft, which is Thursday through Saturday in Chicago, they will face several interesting scenarios.
They are practically guaranteed to be confronted by the ageold draft conundrum: Do they take the best player available or draft to fill their needs, which are at linebacker, defensive end and safety.
“We thought we did some good things in free agency,” Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff said. “We think we can continue to be creative given what we did do in free agency with how we are going to approach the draft.”
The Falcons hold only five picks after losing their fifth-round pick for pumping fake noise into the Georgia Dome during the 2013 and 2014 seasons and trading their sixth-round pick to Tennessee as part of the deal for left guard Andy Levitre. The Falcons and the Rams have the fewest picks in the draft.
The best player at No. 17 might be Michigan State offensive tackle Jack Conklin. The Falcons are set at tackle and may go with a need. However, they haven’t ruled out taking a player on offense.
Dimitroff says the Falcons remain a “needs-based” and “system-specific” team when it comes to the draft.
However, he has learned his lessons along the way. He regrets taking defensive tackle Peria Jerry over linebacker Clay Matthews III in 2009. They went too heavily on their need for a defensive interior presence and passed on Matthews because he did not fit the scheme.
In retrospect, they should have found a way to play Matthews, who was drafted two picks later by Green Bay.
Packers general manager Ted Thompson, a disciple of Hall of Fame general manager Ron Wolf, makes it clear his team takes the best player available.
“We are not just going to go for the need and take a position that talent is exponentially less than another need that we might have and not be as strong as that position,” Dimitroff said. “We try to narrow that gap and make sure that we are very aware of what we are putting on our team. If it happens to be an offensive player and we think it can help us, and upgrade, then, we’ll definitely consider it.”
The Falcons have an expanded analytics department whose information gathering is vital to the process.
“We continue to grow as far as our approach and become more and more intellectual as far as how we are looking at things and presenting things to (coach Dan Quinn),” Dimitroff said.
It is likely when the Falcons select, a player with a serious medical condition (UCLA’s Myles Jack), a player with a bizarre arrest (Ole Miss’ Robert Nkemdiche) and a player who was kicked out of a conference for using Ecstasy (Noah Spence) will be on the board.
The ancillary issues complicate the evaluation as to whether a best player available can even fulfill a need.
“It’s really fun to put it all together,” Quinn said. “The analytics are a really good piece. The tape is a huge piece. That’s the most important piece. Then the off-the-field (background checks) and the reports that go along with that. It’s one of the most exciting times to put the whole thing together and then you make the decision.”
Jack is a speedy linebacker who has the ability to cover running backs and blitz the quarterback.
Nkemdiche dominated at times at Ole Miss from his tackle position.
Some believe Spence, who was suspended by the Big Ten and transferred from Ohio State to Eastern Kentucky, is the best pure pass rusher in the draft.
Jack, who played for Falcons linebackers coach Jeff Ulbrich at UCLA, is considered a topfive talent, but may fall in the draft because of concerns about his right knee. The Falcons have completed their medical research on him.
“(Assistant general manager) Scott Pioli and his staff do a great job helping weed through all of that with the medical staff and the athletic-performance people to make sure that we have all of the information that we need,” Dimitroff said. “It’s an important thing.”
Dimitroff cited the technological advancements that help greatly with the medical assessments.
“A lot of these players, they’ve been playing football a long time, and they’ve been playing hard a long time,” Dimitroff said. “They’ve put themselves on the line. There is going to be wear and tear on their bodies.
“That’s why we have to be open enough to understand and differentiate between what’s a legitimate concern and what’s just the regular wear-and-tear on someone’s body.”
Whether the Falcons take the best player available or attempt to fill a need, there are no guarantees in the draft.
“There is a little bit of the roll of the dice at times when you really start looking at these players,” Dimitroff said. He was a destructive force for the Ducks, with 10.5 sacks, 17 tackles for loss and 83 tackles last season in 13 games. He was named the Pat Tillman Pac-12 defensive player of the year. Plays with power.
A graduate of Grayson High, he was considered the top player in the nation coming out of high school, but is getting mixed reviews after his career at Mississippi. Several NFL scouts noticed inconsistent play after reviewing his game film. Teams also are concerned about an arrest after he fell out of window from a Buckhead hotel. Because of his physical tools, Nkemdiche is considered a potential first-round pick and will attend the draft in Chicago.
His father, John, was a first-round pick of the Dolphins in 1987, and his uncle Eric Kumerow was a first-round pick by the Dolphins in 1988. He was named the Big Ten’s defensive lineman of the year and was a first-team All-Big Ten pick. He was a three-year starter for the Buckeyes and finished with 26 sacks and 50.5 tackles for loss.
He played at Eastside High. He finished his career 10th all-time on Louisville’s sack list, with 18. He also had 31.5 tackles for loss. Several scouts have compared him with Aaron Donald and have projected he will be a inside force.“Best interior pass rusher (in the draft) without a doubt,”said ESPN analyst Louis Riddick, a former NFL executive.
Lawson led the nation in tackles for loss with 25.5 last season. He also had 12.5 sacks to help the Tigers reach the College Football Playoff championship game. “As many good splash plays as he has had, he has had too many, for me, plays where Shaq looks slow, sluggish and not very competitive,” Riddick He is one of the more prolific pass rushers in the draft with 28 sacks in three seasons with the Cowboys. He played at George Bush High near Houston. He has visited the Falcons and the Panthers, who have the 30th pick. Critics contend he amassed his sacks against average tackles and he needs to learn how to play the run.
The late-bloomer ranked second in the nation in tackles for loss with 23.5. He also had 12 sacks and a dominating showing in the national championship game. He’s still considered a raw prospect. He was a project Clemson coach Dabo Swinney took a flyer on. All of the quarterbacks in the SEC are celebrating because the rambunctious Robinson is headed to the NFL. He was a two-year starter for the Crimson Tide and played a variety of positions. He can anchor at nose tackle and is a stout run defender.
Played the run well as he led Alabama defensive linemen in tackles each of the past two seasons. The Falcons are impressed with Reed. He played at Hargrave Military Academy and went the junior college route. He’s very strong and can bench-press 500 pounds. He started all 26 games over the past two seasons for the Nittany Lions. He had 78 tackles, 15 tackles for losses and 6.5 sacks last season.
1. Jonathan Allen, Alabama (end). 2. Carlos Watkins, Clemson (end). 3. Dalvin Tomlinson, Alabama (tackle). 4. DeMarcus Walker, Florida State (end). 5. Isaac Rochell, Notre Dame (end).