Falcons’ odds of winning title are behind Pats, Cowboys and Steelers

Falcons fans wishing to put their money where their heart is could get some value in betting the Birds to win the Super Bowl.

Oddsmakers tab the Falcons as the fourth choice to win the Super Bowl behind the Patriots, Cowboys and Steelers. VegasInsider.com and Bovada.lv list the Falcons with 11-1 odds to win the first Super Bowl in franchise history.

VegasInsider has the Patriots at 8-5, the Cowboys at 17-5 and the Steelers at 17-2; Bovada has the Pats 2-1, the Cowboys 13-4 and the Steelers 8-1.

But, according to two computer models, the Falcons are the third-most likely to win it all behind the Patriots and Cowboys.

The calculations at fivethirtyeight.com and FootballOutsiders.com give the Falcons a 12 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl behind the Pats (29 percent for FiveThirtyEight, 30 percent for FO) and the Cowboys (19 percent for FiveThirtyEight, 26.5 percent for FO).

The implied probability of an 11-1 bet being a winner is just 8.3 percent, so getting the Falcons at those odds provides significant value if the computer models are to be believed. If you are a Falcons fan who isn’t the wagering type, at least take solace in the fact the oddsmakers seem to be underrating your team comparison to the metrics.

With a victory Sunday against the Saints at the Georgia Dome, the Falcons will earn the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.