If North Korea approaches red line, expect response

W. Bennett, “overcommit” the president by saying that the response would be nuclear. But an overwhelming response could be.

On Jan. 1, North Korea’s 33-year-old leader Kim Jong Un said that his regime was at “the final stage in preparations to test-launch” an ICBM, perhaps one capable of reaching America’s Pacific Coast. On Jan. 2, Donald Trump tweeted: “It won’t happen!” He thereby drew a red line comparable to his predecessor’s concerning Syrian chemical weapons. So, Trump, who excoriated Barack Obama for ignoring that red line, must, Bennett believes, be prepared to threaten actions that would prevent North Korea from learning from its test, actions such as shooting down the missile.

The United States has 30-some ground-based interceptor missiles at Fort Greely in Alaska and others at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. This small capability is intended to cope with an accidental firing by an adversary, or an intentional firing by a rogue general, or to deter or defeat a deliberate attack by an adversary with a small nuclear arsenal, such as North Korea. Will the U.S. anti-ballistic missile system work? Bennett says technologies can go wrong, so this would be an opportunity to fix any failures. And unless we then are prepared to shoot down theater-range ballistic missiles, we will signal a less-than-convincing commitment to South Korea and Japan.

In 2006, William Perry, who had been defense secretary for Bill Clinton, and Ashton Carter, who would be Obama’s final defense secretary, recommended U.S. action to destroy any ICBM set for testing on a North Korean launch pad. But that nation’s conventional retaliatory capabilities, including artillery and rockets capable of inflicting considerable damage on at least Seoul’s northern suburbs, forestalled this.

Today, U.S. surface ships and submarines alone could deliver dozens of cruise missiles, and each of up to 10 B-2 bombers could carry two Massive Ordnance Penetrators to destroy underground leadership or missile bunkers. But as soon as Kim has one or more ICBMs (probably road-mobile) capable of delivering, on short notice, a nuclear payload to, say, Santa Monica, pre-emptive U.S. action, even just against his nuclear infrastructure, might be too risky.

Kim recently dismissed the head of his secret police, the latest sign of insecurity. Bennett believes Kim, undeterred by tweets, might test his ICBM for internal purposes — to impress restive North Korean elites.

Bennett suggests that the threat to shoot down the test flight would constructively exacerbate Kim’s problems.

North Korea, which has been run opaquely for the Kim family’s benefit since 1953, is approaching a red line.