The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
You can’t count on hitting surge to last
And offensive effort won’t make up for poor pitching.
The Braves have been a decent offensive baseball team over the first two months of the season. They ended the past week tied for 15th in the majors in runs scored per game (4.53). They ranked 10th in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement. The Braves have been a bit unlucky with their sequencing (the order in which their hitters produce offense) and that’s cost them about four runs, but their record is about what their run differential says it should be.
That above-average offensive output is one reason why the Braves have been competitive in spite of poor pitching. It suggests that if they can ever sort out the pitching they can be better than just competitive. That’s the optimistic point of view, often expressed by Braves players after a stretch of games in which that happens.
But I’m thinking that even if the Braves can improve their pitching, they won’t be able to sustain that offensive output. Their lineup is heavy on older players who are producing at levels that their histories suggest they can’t keep up. And once those players regress to the mean, there aren’t any slumping players that you would expect to start producing more and pick up the slack.
Here are the Braves regulars listed in order of Weighted Runs Created Plus (100 is the league average): Freddie Freeman (206), Tyler Flowers (153), Matt Kemp (147), Matt Adams (128), Kurt Suzuki (129), Brandon Phillips (109), Nick Markakis (101), Ender Inciarte (94), Adonis Garcia (65) and Dansby Swanson (55).
Here are the FanGraphs Depth Charts season projections for those Braves regulars: Freeman (145), Flowers (95), Kemp (110), Adams (99), Suzuki (83), Phillips (86), Markakis (94), Inciarte (92), Garcia (83) and Swanson (84).
Look at the histories of the respective players and you can see why it’s not reasonable to expect most of them to keep producing like they have.
Markakis is as steady as they come but Kemp is likely to end up producing at his 2015 and 2016 levels, not like he did during his Dodgers heyday. Phillips hasn’t finished a season producing like he is now since 2012. Flowers had a career-best season in 2016 but it wasn’t a great one like he’s having now. Suzuki has produced one above-average offensive season among his 13 total.
I actually think Inciarte could end up being better than expected but he’s got enough plate appearances now to suggest he is what he is: an OK bat with a great glove. Garcia likely will hit better but he definitely is what he is. Swanson and new addition Rio Ruiz don’t have enough plate appearances to make any confident projections but it would be a surprise if they end up being above average hitters as rookies.
Eventually Freeman will return to the lineup after his hand fracture heals and that obviously will help. He’s been such a great hitter for the past two seasons that I wouldn’t have bet on him regressing much. It was fun watching him continue to produce this season even after pitchers stopped giving him many pitches to hit.
But even if Freeman had remained in the lineup it’s unlikely the Braves would have continued to be an above average offensive team (and remember they were a losing team even with him on Triple Crown pace). There are just too many older players in the lineup who likely will regress and no young players that could be expected to surge. Maybe one or two of the vets produce more than expected, and perhaps Swanson develops into a great hitter, but chances are all of it will even out in the end.
That’s the biggest reason why I think the Braves will continue to be the team they are now even if the pitching improves: pretty good in spurts, but not good enough over the long haul to win more than 75 games. I could be way off on that but I just don’t see how.