Forces reshaping world are worth pondering at beach

Peter Morici He is an economist, columnist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland

I observe many at the beach forgoing books and intermittently perusing newspapers and magazines for something stimulating to daydream. For those with lazy vacation eyes, let me offer my short-form four forces that will reshape our civilization by 2030.

Reworking democracy

In the 20th century, free-market, democratic societies proved remarkably nimble and outperformed more-autocratic, collectivist states. In recent decades, however, populism has inspired governments to hamstring businesses and redistribute income in ways that discourage investment and the skills acquisition needed to thrive through new technologies. Meanwhile, China’s state-direct capitalism and autocratic government has proven better able to nurture new industries and inspire a strong work ethic.

China and oligarchy will triumph if Western democracies don’t learn to better manage tradeoffs between welfare and efficiency and again accomplish robust growth.

Artificial intelligence

Automation does not eliminate occupations as much as it makes workers more productive. We have been enhancing the productivity of clerical workers with machines since the typewriter, but now computers and apps have extended this trend into the professional ranks. Machines that can think will become as commonplace as upscale smartphones.

These will boost personal productivity and quality of life but also create a sharp dichotomy between folks with quite-advanced skills and others who will be stuck in service jobs — with obvious tensions for inequality.

Blending machines and humans

Artificial intelligence will never fully replace the human mind, because electronic devices are only as good as the information that we let them access. However, soon wearable devices and, within a few decades, tiny chips and processors attached to human brains will be commonplace. By mere concentration, we will be online and accomplish computer-assisted access to information, analytics and communication.

Already, better-educated people are living much longer. DNA and stem cell research will make organ replacement and enhancement routine and, combined with wired and AI-assisted brains, a more durable and intelligent human race will be a reality.

With education extending well into our 20s, societies cannot afford to retire people in their 60’s and pay pensions into their 90’s. Computer implants that repair and enhance brain functions will combat dementia to make life more productive.

Immigration

Modern birth control and the cost of educating children are forcing down birth rates. That forces wealthier societies in Europe and North America to accept immigrants from less-affluent and politically troubled societies who bring different religious traditions and expectations of government.

Advanced societies lack adequate mechanisms for assimilating newcomers and are clumsy at imparting national values. However, the failure to accept these newcomers would spell stagnation and perhaps eventual collapse — too many old people to support, not enough young ones to work.