The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
5 bold predictions for the Falcons defense
Better overall defense should help chances to sack, tackle for loss.
New leadership could push the Falcons defense up in NFL rankings. And there is plenty of room for improvement.
FLOWERY BRANCH — New leadership could push the Falcons’ defense up in NFL rankings in 2017. And there is plenty of room for improvement.
The Falcons, who report for training camp Wednesday, will return 10 of the 11 defensive players who started in Super Bowl LI, but will be under the direction of new coordinator Marquand Manuel.
Manuel is moving over from defensive backs coach to replace the fired Richard Smith. Also, Bryant Young was hired to replace the fired Bryan Cox as defensive line coach.
The only Super Bowl starter not on the roster is defensive end Dwight Freeney.
With key players back, the Falcons hope to get marked improvement from the young unit as well as have a better plan of attack from the first-time coordinator.
Here are five bold predictions for the defense this season:
1. Vic Beasley will have 12 sacks. Beasley had a breakout season in 2016 as he won the Deacon Jones Award after leading the league with 15.5 sacks. He had four sacks the year before as a rookie.
Beasley expects to receive more blocking attention this season, but with a more balanced pass rush from the defense as a whole, he should still flourish. The Falcons have a plenty of players to supplement the rush.
They added defensive tackle Dontari Poe and defensive end Jack Crawford in free agency. They drafted defensive end Takkarist McKinley, who’s recovering from shoulder surgery.
Manuel hopes that ends Adrian Clayborn, Brooks Reed and Derrick Shelby also will pressure the passer. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, who had three sacks in the Super Bowl, wants to continue where he left off.
If other players win their one-on-one matchups, then Beasley will have opportunities to get some one-on-one matchups at defensive end. He’ll also have to figure out how to anticipate and beat the second blocker in order to have another double-digit sack season.
The last Falcon to have back-to-back double-digit sack seasons was John Abraham with 11.5 and 10 in 2013 and 2012, respectively. The team has not had two double-digit sackers since defensive end Patrick Kerney (13) and defensive tackle Rod Coleman (11.5) did it in 2004.
2. Deion Jones will score four touchdowns.
Jones had two touchdowns last season as a rookie linebacker. In his second season, Jones will know how to use his speed better in coverage and will come up with two more scores in 2017.
Jones is a playmaker and when he gets his hands on the ball, he has the instincts and speed of a running back.
The Falcons are counting on Jones to make major strides in his second season. They also want him to become more vocal on defense. Jones is still listed as weighing 222 pounds but wants to play between 230 and 235 pounds this season.
3. Jalen Collins will lead the Falcons in interceptions. The former second-round pick from LSU received extended playing time after Desmond Trufant was injured last season and played well after a bumpy rookie season at cornerback.
Collins will allow the Falcons to match up better with bigger receivers and will give them some flexibility to play more coverages. Collins will see plenty of action as teams will tend to stay away from Trufant’s side of the zone.
With Collins’ improved play, the Falcons could match up with top receivers based on height, weight and speed. For example, Robert Alford (5 feet 10, 186 pounds) could match up on Tampa Bay’s DeSean Jackson (5-10, 175). Over the course of a game, the Falcons could use Trufant, Alford and Collins to wear down Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans or New Orleans’ Michael Thomas.
Options are good things to have.
4. Grady Jarrett will lead the league in tackles for loss. The Falcons believe that Jarrett will continue to develop in 2017, which will lead to more tackles behind the line of scrimmage.
If teams double-team Poe, the quick Jarrett should be able to beat his one-on-one matchup. If teams slide to block defensive end Beasley, Jarrett should be free to collapse the interior of the line, get up the field and make plays in the backfield.
Six players — Houston’s Jadeveon Clowney, Tampa Bay’s Lavonte David, San Diego’s Joey Bosa, Houston’s Whitney Mercilus, the New York Giants’ Olivier Vernon and New Orleans’ Cam Jordan — led the league in tackles for losses with 17 each last season.
The Los Angeles Rams’ Aaron Donald led all tackles with 15 tackles for losses. Jarrett had seven.
Beasley led the Falcons with 11 tackles for losses.
5. Falcons will rank in top half of league. Manuel inherited a young and athletic unit that has several areas to improve on.
The Falcons, playing seven first- or second-year players last season, ranked 25th among 32 teams in yards allowed per game (371.2).
They were 26th in rushing yards per play (4.52 yards), 28th in passing yards per game (266.7), 26th in sacks per pass attempts (5.19), tied for 29th in first downs per game (22.4), 26th in thirddown percentage (41.78), 32nd in red-zone percentage (72.73) and 27th in points allowed (25.4).
“The main focus is on us,” Manuel said. “The numbers will take care of themselves.”