DAILY BRIDGE CLUB:

“I read that U.S. students are only in the 75th percentile in math,” Rose remarked in the club lounge.

“At least we’re in the top 10,” Unlucky Louie said.

Math is not Louie’s forte. But when declarer must combine chances for a contract (my topic this week), a knowledge of percentages is useful.

Playing at today’s 3NT, Louie won the first diamond with the jack and led a club to dummy’s 10. East took the king and returned a diamond, and Louie next let the nine of clubs ride. East produced the queen, and the defense ran the diamonds for down one.

Louie has extra chances. He can start by taking the top spades. If the suit breaks 3-3, Louie can lead hearts to get two more tricks: nine or more in all.

Say East throws a heart on the third spade. Then Louie can attack either clubs or hearts to try for nine tricks. But whichever suit he tries, he can first cash the ace of the other suit. As it happens, the fall of the 10 of hearts or a club honor makes his task easy.

DAILY QUESTION: You hold: ♠ K53 ♥ Q87 ◆ K 10 ♣A J 10 8 7. Neither side vulnerable. The dealer, at your right, opens one heart. What do you say?

ANSWER: Many players would overcall two clubs and they might survive. But game in clubs is far away, and since clubs is the lowranking suit, buying the contract at a club partscore is uncertain. Moreover, the hand has a ton of losers, and the chance of a penalty double is real. I would pass.