The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Emphasizing run could play into Panther strength
Quinn would like more rushing attempts, but Falcons must convert.
FLOWERY BRANCH — It’s always a good idea when traveling to pack your running game, at least when you’re an NFL team, and it’s a good bet that when the Falcons open division play Sunday at Carolina they’ll work often by ground.
But don’t bet on the run-pass ratio that helped the Falcons (4-3) defeat the Jets last week, not in Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte against the NFL’s No. 4 rush defense and not if the weather’s nice.
In rushing 32 times for 140 yards and passing 29 times with one sack, the Falcons carved out a 52-48 ratio that warmed the heart of coach Dan Quinn in monsoon-ish MetLife Stadium.
By contrast, his team’s season ratio is 42-58.
Yet the weather Sunday likely won’t dictate such a run-heavy approach against the Panthers (5-3), even though the Falcons’ boss might be happy to split the difference in ratios.
“I want to improve our number of runs. I’m pleased with how we’re running it, just not the
number of attempts that we’re getting,” Quinn said this week. “For us to do that, we need more plays, too.”
That circles back to a recurring problem: third downs.
For the second consecutive week, Quinn added time to practices for third-down and red-zone work as the Falcons prepared for their NFC South opener against the Panthers (5-3).
The Falcons struggled again last week, converting 5 of 14 thirddown plays, and they’re seeing too many drives cut short by failures in those situations and in the red zone. The Falcons scored two touchdowns on six red-zone possessions against the Jets, and took four Matt Bryant field goals.
None of this guarantees that offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian is changing anything dramatically.
Like wide receiver Julio Jones said, “Not really no new wrinkles. It’s about seeing the same things (player to player) and (everybody) being on the same page.”
Every NFL team tweaks weekto-week for reasons relating to personnel on both sides, injuries, schematics and such.
“I think (the plan) changes a little week to week based on what is going to be our emphasis,” Sarkisian said. “There’s no doubt that’s going to be a key component to this game. Carolina’s an excellent red-zone defense ... . ”
Actually, while the Panthers have been stout on third downs, allowing just a 33-percent conversion rate to rank No. 6, they’re horrible in the red zone, where they’ve given up touchdowns 60 percent of the time to tie for 27th.
Whatever the Falcons do on whatever down, there’s evidence to suggest that Quinn’s itch to run the ball more should be scratched.
Running backs Devonta Freeman (466 yards, 4.5 average, five touchdowns) and Tevin Coleman (311, 5.4, one) get the job done more often than not, as when Coleman broke off a season-long 52-yarder against the Jets.
Try reconciling these numbers: the Falcons rank No. 10 in rushing (123.3 yards per game) and No. 4 per rush (4.79) with that separation coming because they’re No. 20 in run attempts per game (25.7).
Grain-of-salt category: There is little evidence to suggest that running the ball against the Panthers might be smooth sledding.
They’re surrendering only 81.6 yards per game. Defensive tackles Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei are monoliths in the middle, and linebackers Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson don’t fool around.
“These guys are super smart on defense. That’s one thing I like about them,” said Freeman, who has averaged 3.67 rushing yards per carry and 44 rushing yards per game in six games against the Panthers. “It forces us to be on our details.
“I think between Carolina linebackers and (Tampa Bay) linebackers, those are the best groups of linebackers I play against every year. They ball.”
Sarkisian isn’t arguing. He’s getting his first look at Short, who has 25 percent of his 26 career sacks (6.5) against the Falcons while playing 11 percent of his 72 career games against them.
That doesn’t even take into account the 7.5 sacks by reborn Panthers defensive end Julius Peppers or the 5.5 by end Mario Addison for a team that ranks No. 2 in sacks (27) and No. 2 in sacks per opposing pass attempt (11.07 percent).
Then again, all that pressure isn’t helping the Panthers intercept the ball. They have just three picks, ahead of only the Falcons, Miami (two each) and Oakland (0).
Maybe the Falcons will bust out more no-huddle offense and fling it around to create more running situations.
“I think we’re very comfortable when we don’t huddle,” Sarkisian said. “That’s shown in just about every two-minute drive we’ve had. We’ve been very effective when doing so . ... It varies from week to week.”