Playoff forecast: Falcons make it

Projecting anything about the Falcons this season is risky but their playoff chances look good. Philadelphia (11-2) and Minnesota (103) likely will be the NFC’s top two seeds (in either order) and get first-round byes. The Eagles lost QB Carson Wentz for the season with a knee injury but backup Nick Foles is good enough to help Philadelphia win at least two of the last three (at New York Giants, home vs. Oakland and Dallas). The Vikings could win all three of their games against Cincinnati (5-8), Green Bay (7-6) and Chicago (4-9).

Here’s how I think the final three weeks will play out:

L.A. Rams (9-4): This isn’t the same team the Falcons slammed 42-14 last season. Then again, it’s not the same Falcons team, either. Sean McVay should be the NFL’s coach of the year for what he’s done with the team and QB Jared Goff (22 TDs, six interceptions). Todd Gurley (1,035 yards, 10 TDs) looks like he’s back in the SEC. The Rams’ only two losses in the past eight games were to the Vikings and Eagles. Even if they lose at Seattle, they’ll beat Tennessee and San Francisco. Playoff forecast: IN (11-5, No. 3 seed).

New Orleans (9-4): The Saints were expected to be the NFC South’s worst team, but they’re probably on their way to winning the division, unless RB Alvin Kamara (concussion) is out for a while. He is a big factor in the running and passing game and when he’s out it puts too much on quarterback Drew Brees to do it all. The Saints have an advantageous remaining schedule: home vs. Jets, home vs. Falcons, at Tampa Bay. It’s difficult to imagine them not winning at least two — enough to hold first place. Playoff forecast: IN (12-4, No. 4 seed).

Carolina (9-4): Not an easy team to read. Lose to Chicago but beat Minnesota? This week’s game vs. Green Bay could determine things because of how I believe the following two weeks will play out. The Packers have won the last two with Brett Hundley at QB, but they were overtime wins over Tampa Bay and Cleveland. The Panthers should win this week and next week vs. Tampa Bay and will have a playoff berth locked down before the finale against the Falcons. Playoff forecast: IN (11-5, No. 5 seed).

Falcons (8-5): The margin for error disappeared when they lost three straight after a 3-0 start. They’ve won five of seven since, and now must win at least two of the final three to make the playoffs. Monday’s game at Tampa Bay is the swing game. If the Falcons win — and they should because they’ll be coming off a long break and the Buccaneers are a mess — they’ll be 9-5 going into the last two games (at New Orleans, home vs. Carolina). Playing a potentially healthier Saints team on the road and in a short week spells trouble. It could come down to the final game against Carolina. Here’s what I see: win over Bucs, loss to Saints, win over Panthers. Playoff forecast: IN (10-6, No. 6 seed).

Seattle (8-5): If Sunday’s loss at Jacksonville didn’t bury the Seahawks, it at least made it difficult for them. They will have to win at least two of their last three games, starting Sunday against the Rams. They also play at Dallas and home against Arizona. Playoff forecast: OUT (9-7).