The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

What needs to happen before electric cars take over?

Raw materials, lower costs, more charging stations are key.

- JACK EWING

On the slope of a thickly forested Czech mountain, three men in hard hats and mud-spattered fluorescen­t vests dig for the metal that could power a new industrial revolution.

They watch carefully as a mobile rig, mounted on tank treads, hammers and spins a drill bit hundreds of yards into the bedrock. Water gushes from the bore as the bit punctures an undergroun­d spring.

The men are prospectin­g for new sources of lithium, a raw material now found primarily in China and Chile that could become as important to the auto industry as oil is now.

Faster than anyone expected, electric cars are becoming as economical and practical as cars with convention­al engines. Prices for lithium-ion batteries are plummeting, while technical advances are increasing driving ranges and cutting recharging times.

“Once the trend gets going, it can happen very fast,” said Guido Jouret, chief digital officer at ABB, an electronic­s company based in Zurich whose businesses include constructi­ng charging stations.

But this electric-car future is still missing some pieces. Some crucial raw materials are scarce. There are not enough places to recharge. Battery-powered cars still cost thousands of dollars more than many gasoline vehicles.

Car companies are racing to overcome these obstacles. They, and the millions of people they employ, risk becoming irrelevant.

“Many people are nervous about how fast this is coming and how much they have to invest,” said Norbert Dressler, a senior partner at Roland Berger in Stuttgart, Germany, who advises the auto industry.

Here’s a look at what needs to happen before electric cars take over the world.

The cost of building motors and components will have to continue to decrease.

■ Price of an electric car powertrain: $16,000

■ Price of a convention­al car powertrain: $6,000

Electric cars will go mainstream when the cost of the motor and other components that make the car go forward — the powertrain — is the same or below as owning a car that burns gasoline or diesel. How soon that day arrives is almost solely a function of the price of batteries.

Battery prices, measured by the power they produce, have fallen by more than half since 2011, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The unexpected­ly rapid drop in prices has sped up the timetable.

Merrill Lynch analysts now expect electric vehicles will be cheaper to own in the United States by 2024. Just a year ago, they estimated it would take until 2030.

One reason battery costs are falling is that manufactur­ers are ramping up production. The greater the supply, the lower the price.

There must be a steady, affordable supply of the resources required to make batteries.

■ Price of cobalt: Up 115 percent this year

■ Price of lithium: Up 45 percent

■ Price of graphite: Up 30 percent

Carmakers are racing to secure the essential ingredient­s in batteries like cobalt, lithium and graphite. They need to avoid shortages that would drive prices too high, making electric vehicles unaffordab­le.

But manufactur­ers are also dealing with a geopolitic­al dimension. Three-quarters of the world’s reserves of lithium, a crucial ingredient in the most common kind of electric car battery, are in China and Chile, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. As demand surges, China could deploy its natural resources as a diplomatic cudgel the same way that Saudi Arabia uses oil.

The risk that a few countries could control most of the ingredient­s for electric car batteries is what spurred the drilling crew to the mountainsi­de in Cinovec in the Czech Republic. As early as the 1300s, miners dug tin — “cin” in Czech — from the mountains around the town. Later, the area was an important source of tungsten, but the last shaft closed in 1993. Demand for lithium has made mining in the area attractive again.

European Metals Holdings Ltd., an Australian company, is drilling into the bedrock and hauling out core samples to map deposits. The company plans to complete a feasibilit­y study next year and begin mining and processing the ore in Cinovec soon after.

More charging stations will need to be built, and they’ll need to charge faster.

■ Average range of a gasoline-powered car: 475 miles

■ Average range of an electric vehicle: 190 miles

Even when people can buy an electric car for the same price or less than a gasoline model, they face another problem: where to plug it in. And they will not want to wait all day for the car to recharge.

Electric cars will become commonplac­e once there is a dense network of high-voltage charging stations where drivers can refill their batteries in the time it takes to use the restroom and drink a cup of coffee. At the moment, a cross-country drive in an electric car is an adventure.

But an array of startups and establishe­d companies like ABB are busy installing charging stations around the world, and they are on their way to becoming commonplac­e. There are already about 16,000 public charging stations in the United States, up from a few hundred in 2010. That compares with about 112,000 gas stations.

Surprising­ly, Volkswagen’s emissions scandal has accelerate­d the rollout. As part of its settlement with diesel owners in the United States who bought cars with illegal software, Volkswagen agreed to spend $2 billion to promote electric cars and build infrastruc­ture. Electrify America, a company establishe­d to invest the settlement money, plans to install more than 2,000 fast chargers nationwide by mid-2019 in a first phase, with thousands more to follow.

Drivers will have to shed their attachment to the sound, smell and feel of gas-powered engines.

■ Time from 0 to 60 mph, Audi A8: 4 seconds

■ Time from 0 to 60 mph, Tesla S: 2.3 seconds

One of the biggest barriers for electric vehicles is psychologi­cal. People are used to internal combustion engines and the sensations that go with them — the odor of the fuel, the shifting of the transmissi­on, the sound of the engine as the car accelerate­s.

Electric cars have a different personalit­y that people need to get their heads around before they will buy one.

They may be pleasantly surprised. The physics of electric motors give them exceptiona­l accelerati­on. A $135,000 Tesla S clocked by Motor Trend magazine went from zero to 60 mph faster than Ferraris, Lamborghin­is or Porsches costing hundreds of thousands of dollars more.

Electric cars are quiet, nearly vibration free and they do not smell like gasoline or exhaust. They do not need oil changes. They cost less to operate — about 1 cent per mile compared with 10 cents per mile for a gasoline-powered car. Electric cars hug the road because heavy battery packs, typically arrayed underneath the passenger compartmen­t, provide low centers of gravity and high stability.

“There is no question that an electric car gives you significan­tly better performanc­e,” Stafford said. “I don’t think the mainstream driver is going to understand that unless they experience it.”

The car industry will have to leave some of its old methods of production by the side of the road.

■ Carmakers’ investment in electric vehicles: $100 billion by 2020

■ Carmakers’ annual profit: $400 billion

The industry is racing to invest in the future, as electric cars portend sweeping economic and societal changes. The transition will be painful for traditiona­l carmakers and suppliers, potentiall­y even catastroph­ic.

Electric cars have about 25 percent fewer parts than convention­al autos. Companies that make engine parts like pistons, fuel injection systems or spark plugs will have to find new products to sell, or die. Some workers’ skills will no longer be needed.

Government­s will lose fuel tax revenues. Filling stations and auto repair shops will go out of business. To compete with Tesla, which allows customers to buy cars online, car companies will have to radically streamline their dealership networks.

“The cake will be smaller,” said Volkmar Denner, the chief executive of Bosch, the auto parts maker.

Establishe­d carmakers will face new competitor­s taking advantage of the technology shift to break into the market. Chinese companies are investing heavily in electric cars. Dyson, a British company hitherto known for its innovative vacuum cleaners, has announced plans to develop an electric car.

Big car companies recognize the threat and argue that they can deploy their enormous manufactur­ing networks to roll out electric vehicles faster than Tesla, which has struggled to meet demand.

“We won’t have a problem building 1 million cars,” said Herbert Diess, chief executive of the division that makes Volkswagen brand cars.

 ?? JASON HENRY / NEW YORK TIMES ?? Edwin Stafford charges his Tesla in Mountain View, Calif. Electric cars are becoming as economical and practical as cars with convention­al engines.
JASON HENRY / NEW YORK TIMES Edwin Stafford charges his Tesla in Mountain View, Calif. Electric cars are becoming as economical and practical as cars with convention­al engines.

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