The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Cubs’ rotation in 2016 set bar
World Series-winning group had 81 wins, 2.96 ERA.
MESA, ARIZ. — To top the Cubs starting pitchers of 2016 to become manager Joe Maddon’s best rotation, the current crop at least must match that group’s 81 victories while compiling a 2.96 ERA.
“Going into the year, it might be the best we’ve looked on paper, but it’s still about what you do once you get on the field,” Kyle Hendricks said.
Those lofty marks represent the bar the Cubs’ 2016 rotation set en route to the club’s first World Series championship since 1908. The addition of Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood at the front and back ends of the 2018 rotation, however, prompted Maddon to declare five weeks ago this is his best starting five since taking over as in 2015.
“That’s my scouting part of it,” said Maddon, applying the evaluating eye he started to develop nearly 40 years ago while appraising the Four Corners section of Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Nevada for the Angels. “(But) it’s hard to beat the results of that (2016) group. They were outstanding.
“I’m just thinking moving forward, ( Jon) Lester is going to be stronger. I think Kyle has another year under his belt and ( Jose) Quintana is with us for a full season, Chatwood is going to be very good on sea level (after pitching in altitude for the Rockies), and then you add Yu Darvish. Think about the way they throw the baseball.
“I just think (the overall) stuff is better. That’s what it comes down to. From that, when I’m talking about the best staff ever, I have my scouting hat on. More than anything, it’s hard to beat the results we’ve shown.”
The comparisons between former ace Jake Arrieta and Darvish will persist, and Arrieta posted an 18-8 record and 3.10 ERA in 197⅓ innings during the Cubs’ run to the Series title. Those numbers are realistic for Darvish to attain, although he gives the Cubs a dominant strikeout dimension they haven’t had since Arrieta’s 2015 National League Cy Young Award-winning season.
Darvish, 31, already has shown the Cubs his ability to
work out of jams with strikeouts and double plays, as he did in a spring outing against the Athletics on March 11.
Moreover, the Cubs are banking the resources they can provide will help Darvish maximize his talents. Continuing his stint in the National League also should benefit him as Darvish’s ERA dipped from 4.01 in 22 starts for the Rangers to 3.44 in nine starts after moving to the Dodgers at the trade deadline last season.
But Arrieta has developed a big-game reputation, as evidenced by his 2015 NL wildcard victory, two triumphs in the 2016 World Series and a 3-2 victory over the Dodgers in the fourth game of the 2017 NL Championship Series that helped the Cubs hold off elimination.
Part of Darvish’s motivation is redeeming himself after failing to last two innings in either Game 3 or Game 7 of the 2017 for the Dodgers.
Meanwhile, Lester is determined to pitch 200 innings this season after doing so in eight of the past 10. He fell short of the mark in 2017 and took responsibility for his inability to preserve the bullpen early in they year. That goal will take care of itself if he can improve his sharpness, as his hits and walks average per nine innings climbed by 2.8 from 2016.
“Everybody looks good on paper with all these projections and computer programs that people spit out now,” Lester said last month. “But it’s about what you’re going to do that season. It looks great. We still have to show up and pitch.”
One of the biggest challenges for the current rotation
is to match the consistency of 2016. Each of the five starters made at least 29 starts that year, and the Cubs didn’t use a sixth starter (Adam Warren) until the 84th game.
Hendricks posted the majors’ lowest ERA (2.13), but perhaps his biggest asset was saving the bullpen at critical times.
Hendricks threw 117 pitches in 6⅔ innings less than 24 hours after the bullpen hurled 7⅓ innings in a 15-inning victory over the Reds in Cincinnati. Five weeks later, Hendricks threw a 123-pitch shutout one night after the bullpen was needed for nine innings of a 12-inning victory.
Quintana and Hendricks have stressed consistency as their major goals. Quintana’s inability to pitch deep into games in August cost him a shot at 200 innings as he failed to hit the mark he had achieved the previous four seasons when he threw 188⅔. Hendricks missed seven weeks with a right middle finger injury and that limited him to 139⅔ innings.
Chatwood’s 96-mph fastball, combined with his 2.57 road ERA the past two seasons and his knack for inducing ground balls, spark optimism he will experience a breakout year.
But Chatwood, 28, has yet to pitch more than 158 innings in season. That’s 8⅔ innings fewer than Jason Hammel threw for the Cubs in 2016.
“It comes down to in-game stuff,” Hendricks said. “It’s the extra things that some guys don’t have on paper. It’s the competitiveness in guys, being able to make that one pitch late in games.”