The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Victory away from history
When a Triple Crown is on the line in the Belmont Stakes, the race boils down to one essential question: Will he or won’t he?
That’s certainly the case this year, when Justify will arrive in New York without any obvious rival for 3-yearold thoroughbred supremacy.
The Kentucky Derby and Preakness champion could face as many as 10 challengers Saturday, most of them far better rested than he. But the more pressing opponents are his potential limitations and the inherent difficulty of the Triple Crown.
Though American Pharoah made it look relatively easy three years ago, the 37 years of futility that preceded him taught us the five-week test is maddeningly hard. So many excellent horses tried and failed for reasons of competition, health, stamina and luck.
Will one of those factors topple Justify or will he become the 13th horse in history good enough to trample all questions? Here are five storylines to watch as we look forward to his attempt:
■ Did the Preakness indicate Justify is a tiring horse? For perhaps the first time in his threemonth blitz on the sport, Justify looked worn out as he approached the wire at Pimlico Race Course.
Jockey Mike Smith said he eased him up slightly, because he was confident the victory was in hand. But by almost any measure, Justify’s performance in Baltimore was a step back from his 2½-length victory in the Derby.
As rival trainer Chad Brown noted the day before the Preakness, it’s extremely difficult for any young horse, even a great one, to improve race after race. And Justify had already come so far since his maiden start Feb. 18. Not to mention, he had to run on a mud-caked track for the second time in two weeks.
All of those factors might have kept him from showing his best. And he still won — the mark of an excellent horse and potentially a classic one.
■ Are any of the challengers threats to Justify if he’s on his game? Probably not. He wins the resume race in this field by more lengths than he won the Derby.
We have the usual array of returning challengers from the Derby, including seventh-place finisher Hofburg, who closed well despite a difficult trip at Churchill Downs, and Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso, whose owners feel he’s built for distance.
Tenfold made up significant ground on a tired Justify in the stretch of the Preakness, and his trainer, Steve Asmussen, seemed eager for a rematch.
Bravazo ran gamely in the Derby and Preakness, where he finished a close second. But his trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, calls Justify the King Kong of this class.
■ Would the absence of Audible take away from Justify’s achievement? This is probably a question for racing lovers more than casual sports fans, but it’s inevitable given the Triple Crown aspirant is owned by the same group that owns his would-be top challenger.
In announcing Audible would not run, trainer Todd Pletcher said his horse was not doing as well as he had been in the run-up to the Derby and he preferred to freshen him for the summer.
But skeptics will say the ownership group, led by WinStar Farm, wanted to clear the way for Justify to win the Triple Crown and reap the financial rewards associated with it.
■ If Justify wins the Triple Crown, would it be a lesser story than when American Pharoah won? The Belmont always feels like a big event, live and on television, when a Triple Crown is on the line. That will surely bear out in attendance and television ratings.
That said, there’s no way to replicate 37 years of anticipation — the agony of nearmisses, the hunger for a star to lift a struggling sport, the questions of whether a Triple Crown was too difficult in an age of lightly raced horses — that set the backdrop for American Pharoah’s indelible run.
■ How much star quality does Justify bring? We saw the limits of this question with American Pharoah. His three races after the Triple Crown felt like festivals as casual fans flocked to celebrate a generational talent. But as industry analysts had warned, no one horse was going to reverse the business declines that have weakened racing in so many parts of the country.
Justify certainly could be a star of the same ilk. Like Pharoah, he’s trained by the enduring face of the sport in Bob Baffert. He’s undefeated. He’s a magnificent looking animal — about the same height as Pharoah but packing an extra 100 pounds of muscle.
Given the barriers he’s already smashed, this is a horse to remember even if he does not win at Belmont.