The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Overrated: 10 teams falling shy of promise
Some surprising names come up if you do the math.
“Overrated” is an ugly word in college football. It’s what fans chant when a top-ranked team is about to lose and causes coaches such as Nick Saban to call the hype surrounding a team “rat poison.”
But we love upsets. They’re one of the great things about the game, especially because they happen every Saturday. As soon as word starts to spread that a top team may be in trouble, fans switch over to watch.
It’s around this time that someone, somewhere, always says, “That team is always overrated. They have no business being ranked so high.”
The following top-10 list was compiled by using each year’s preseason and postseason Associated Press Poll. The difference from where a team was initially projected to where it finished was measured in points, so if a team was preseason No. 5 and postseason No. 2 it scored plus-3.
The scores for every team, every year were subsequently added up, with the following programs having the most negative points:
10. Florida State: The Seminoles can take some solace in knowing that rival Florida was very close to occupying this space. They could also claim that it was mostly one decade, the 2000s, that put them here if it wasn’t for last season as well.
9. Texas A&M: For years, the Aggies were one of those programs that always seemed to look good on paper, but just couldn’t quite get out of the shadow of rival Texas. Homer Norton guided the program’s lone consensus national title in 1936, and Paul “Bear” Bryant had Texas A&M on the doorstep before “Mama called” at Alabama.
8. Pittsburgh: Pitt is one of those programs that causes people throughout the rest of the nation to wonder, “Why aren’t they better?” Since 1983, the program has had just four teams finish with a ranking, and none better than No. 15 (2009).
7. Michigan: The Wolverines only had one decade, the 1960s, when they were in the black as far as meeting expectations. In every other one, their combined finish was worse than their preseason rankings. It’s a trend that continues today.
6. Nebraska: The last four decades just haven’t been good to the Cornhuskers when it comes to meeting expectations, and, yes, that includes the Tom Osborne era. Before he broke through and won back-to-back titles in 1994-95, the coach had a reputation for not being able to win big games.
5. Texas: Darrell Royal had a remarkable run in which from 1960-63 the Longhorns were in the top five of the preseason AP poll 12 times. But even those seasons included two in which Texas plummeted from No. 4 to unranked (1960 and 1967), and one in which it did a nose dive from No. 2 (1965).
4. Ohio State: With it comes to meeting expectations, the Buckeyes have been pretty steady the last three decades. It’s when you look at the previous years that the glaring setbacks really stick out. Among them was 1987, when Earl Bruce’s team went from preseason No. 4 to 5-4-1 and out of the rankings.
3. Oklahoma: During the 16 years that Barry Switzer coached the Sooners, only once did he have a team go up the rankings — 1973, his first year. He had five teams finish at the same place (of which three began at No. 1 and won the national title), but all of the rest slid including the 1983 team that went from No. 2 to unranked. A victim of unfair expectations? Perhaps. But it’s something Oklahoma still has problems, with as the 2014 Sooners went from No. 4 to unranked and the 2009 team dropped out all the way from No. 3.
2. Notre Dame: Even when Notre Dame isn’t even ranked, you’ll still hear fans grousing about how the Fighting Irish are overrated. Brian Kelly’s 2016 team going from No. 10 to unranked with a 5-8 record doesn’t come close to the program’s biggest disappointments. Among them were 1981, when Jerry Faust’s team started at No. 3 and moved up to No. 1 before finishing 4-5, 1994 when Lou Holtz couldn’t stop Notre Dame from dropping from No. 2 to unranked, and Frank Leahy in 1950.
1. Southern California: The Trojans have been ranked in the AP preseason poll 57 times, 17 of which they finished unranked. Some were considered big-time setbacks like 2012, when Lane Kiffin’s team finished 7-6 after being tabbed preseason No. 1. John McKay also had a team go from No. 1 to unranked in 1963, but that’s when the AP only ranked 10 teams.
Finally, if you go back to the first story in this series, the all-time Associated Press Poll’s Top 25, seven of the top eight teams were listed in this article.
However, while none of the 173 teams to be ranked in a preseason or final poll finished exactly at +0, there’s one in the all-time Top 25 that was within plus or minus 3, which makes it clearly the most consistent winning program in college football.
It’s none other than Alabama.