United favorite to win MLS Cup

Odds against claiming Supporters’ Shield are longer, website says.

Atlanta United is predicted to win the MLS Cup, but not the Supporters’ Shield, according to the website FiveThirtyEight.com.

The Five Stripes have a 21 percent probability of winning the MLS Cup but just a 34 percent probability of winning the Supporters’ Shield. The Red Bulls have a 37 percent probability of winning the Supporters’ Shield and 18 percent probability of winning the MLS Cup.

Atlanta United leads MLS in points (48), with Red Bulls (47) and NYCFC (47) its closest pursuers. The Red Bulls’ higher probability of winning the Supporters’ Shield can be traced to it playing one fewer game than Atlanta United so far. That game will be made up within the next two weeks.

Atlanta United will host Columbus (11-7-6) on Sunday and will play at Orlando (7-15-2) on Aug. 24.

The Red Bulls will play at Vancouver (9-9-6) on Saturday, at NYCFC (14-5-5) on Wednesday and will host D.C. United (6-96) on Aug. 26.

The website predicts that Atlanta United and Red Bulls will each finish with 66 points, three fewer than the historic mark of 69 set last season by Toronto.

Interestingly, the website calculates Sporting KC with the highest probability (12 percent) among Western Conference teams of winning the MLS Cup. Dallas, atop the West with 42 points to KC’s 39, is tied with Portland (6 percent probability of winning the league.