Black Friday 2018 predictions and tips

We’ve got to talk Christmas shopping calendars, OK?

There are certain cycles each year — that are slightly different this year — for you to have the least amount of hassle and find the most bargains when you’re shopping for Christmas.

Things really get kicked off now that we’ve moved past Halloween.

As far as the best time to buy, there’s really almost a two-week period — I call it the “Black Friday State of Mind” — that goes on the week before Thanksgiving and goes on all the way through that Sunday after Thanksgiving and online shopping through that Monday immediately following. There are great, great deals then.

But there are a huge percentage of people who aren’t into shopping at all and look at shopping as just drudgery, an obligation, and wait until the very last minute to Christmas shop — and that’s brutal for your wallet.

In fact, the greatest deals historically are — based on this year’s calendar — likely cutting off around Dec. 9, especially for online shopping. With both FedEx and UPS being overwhelmed, you’re going to see the retailers that sell only online stopping their really good deals by Dec. 9 so they don’t disappoint you by not getting you the items in time.

But let me tell you a trick: If you shop online at a store that also has physical locations, you will still find deals for that entire next week if you click to purchase online, but do free in store pick-up. You’ll know you have it for whoever you intend it for for Christmas, and you’ll still get a deal.

Speaking of “Deal or No Deal”: Those two weeks from Dec. 10 until just before Christmas are generally the very most expensive weeks you can shop for Christmas, but it’s also feast or famine. If I’m a retailer and I guessed wrong that people are really going to want this, that or the other and they don’t buy it in the quantities I expected and I have them left over, I want them cleared out before the Christmas season’s over. In that case, I’ll have a lot of deals for you.

So, let’s talk about what will be deals this Christmas.

TVs will be ginormous over the Black Friday/holiday period, that now 10-day or so period. Electronics of all kinds — particularly off-brands, third-tier brands. iPhones? Not so much. Android? There are going to be a lot of deals on Samsung phones and secondary brands for Android, particularly around Black Friday.