Air travel forecast calls for better screening

A record 45.7 million passengers are expected to fly on domestic airlines from Friday to Jan. 6. But unlike holiday seasons past, they are unlikely to be standing in nightmarishly long lines.

“My hope is this Christmas will be a better, less stressful, more hassle-free airport screening experience than last year,” said Henry Harteveldt, founder of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel industry analysis firm in San Francisco.

Why? Better technology is one reason. The Transportation Security Administration has installed more effective equipment, like improved conveyor belts and 3D scanning machines, which give screeners a better view of the contents of travelers’ carry-on bags. The airlines and airports are testing biometric screening of passengers’ passports or other photo IDs.

The airlines are also adding more flights on some of their busiest routes or switching to bigger planes to meet demand during the period.

And then, there are the dogs. The TSA is using more dogs trained to detect explosives.

The dogs speed the security process because passengers have already been vetted for explosives by the time they reach the scanners.

“They’re a very important layer of security,” an agency spokeswoman, Lisa Farbstein, said.

Of course, bad weather could throw a wrench into all the plans. But airlines also have an answer for that — apps that they say will allow travelers to reschedule their flights more quickly than standing in line at the ticket counter.

The result should be smoother travel.

“The industry is not ignoring the challenge of this,” Harteveldt said. “What I’m encouraged by is that steps are being taken, these

new initiatives are being implemented and anything that can help move people through the screening faster is going to benefit everybody.”

Multiple factors are responsible for the surge in passenger traffic, a 5.2 percent rise over the comparable period last season, industry analysts say.

A robust economy with low unemployment and rising wages has given Americans more money and more confidence about spending that money.

“We’re basically experiencing the impact of a strong economy,” said Dan McKone, senior partner and head of the travel and transportation practice at LEK Consulting. “While there’s a lot of mixed indicators impacting the markets, the overall economy remains strong and air passenger growth tends to be most highly correlated with GDP,” he said.

While investors’ concern about economic growth has led to volatility in the stock market in recent weeks, it has also contributed to the slide in global oil prices that has translated to lower gas prices for drivers and cheaper jet fuel.

“Jet fuel has decreased, although it was up as much as 30 to 40 percent earlier this year,” Harteveldt said.

This is helping to keep ticket prices low, which also drives demand, especially among leisure travelers.

According to data from the travel booking platform Hopper, round-trip domestic ticket prices for holiday flights are averaging $304, a drop of nearly 10 percent from last year. (Prices for international flights ticked up a bit, rising $66 on average.)

“If you actually look at the average price of tickets in real terms adjusted for inflation, air traffic continues to be more and more affordable,” McKone said.

With ticket prices lower, more Americans will be flying, and Hopper estimates that overall spending will be 6 percent higher this holiday season than last. “Having lower prices definitely does drive demand,” McKone said.

Airlines for America, the industry trade organization, estimates that domestic airlines will add, collectively, 143,000 seats daily to accommodate holiday travelers, and according to Patrick Surry, chief data scientist at Hopper, much of that capacity is being added by the major carriers at large hub airports.