The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Another wild weekend?
4 top questions before NFL division playoffs.
The NFL will be hardpressed to top one of the greatest wild-card weekends in history.
Of course, it was a perfect storm of circumstances that led to three road teams winning and the fourth, the Seattle Seahawks, losing by two points to the Dallas Cowboys. The four division-winning teams in the wild-card round — the Texans, Cowboys, Ravens and Bears — started four quarterbacks with only one combined game of playoff experience, and faced off against four veteran QBs who have all been to conference championship games or Super Bowls.
The result was a compelling weekend of close matchups — save for the Colts’ 21-7 win over the Texans — capped by the crazy final two minutes of the Eagles’ win over Chicago, which featured a miss by Bears kicker Cody Parkey.
Let’s take a look at the biggest questions entering this weekend’s matchups.
1. Are the Chargers the best team in the AFC?
They reminded why they are the most complete team in the AFC during Sunday’s 23-17 win over Baltimore: They have a defense that can up to the level of their offense.
That’s not to say they’re without issues on that side of the ball, as injuries at linebacker have forced them to use seven defensive backs. But the system has worked so far, as that strategy worked to perfection against the Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson — in part due to the stellar play of rookie all-pro safety Derwin James. They are vulnerable to teams that specialize in power running, but that’s not the Patriots, this week’s foe.
Also in the Chargers’ favor: QB Philip Rivers is healthy and playing his best football. He is four-deep in quality receivers and has a top-level running back in Melvin Gordon.
Sure, the Patriots have the edge in Sunday’s matchup. They are 8-0 at home this season and simply don’t lose home playoff games. On the road this year, however, the Chargers are 7-1 and have a plus-63 point differential. Their only “road” loss came in L.A. to the Rams. Even though they have to board a plane and fly to a road game, and the Patriots get the support of a home crowd, the Chargers have a decent chance of winning and advancing to the AFC championship game.
2. Which of the young QBs will step up?
While the old guard quarterbacks bested the millennials in the wild-card round, the young quarterbacks weren’t overwhelmed.
But let’s go to the quarterbacks who are still in it. Dak Prescott showed in Dallas’ win Saturday just how much he has grown since his last two playoff appearances. From the start of the win over Seattle, he connected on passes he missed in his first playoff game in 2016. He was seven for 12 in the first quarter for 66 yards. Part of the reason for his success is Amari Cooper, who is the No. 1 receiver Prescott thought he used to have in Dez Bryant. But Bryant couldn’t get much separation after his foot injuries, and Cooper is not only a great outside target, but perhaps the best receiver on double moves in football. He’ll face another young gun in the Rams’ Jared Goff on Saturday night, and it will be tough for Prescott to keep pace. On the road this year, Dallas is 3-5 and has averaged only 17.3 points per game. That’s 8.7 points less than the Cowboys average at home. One of these two passers from the 2016 draft class will earn a berth in the NFC championship game.
The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is the likely MVP this year, after throwing for 50 TD passes in leading his team to the No. 1 seed. But his game Saturday against the Colts’ Andrew Luck won’t be easy, in one of the best QB matchups we’ve seen in years. The Colts are the NFL’s hottest team, and Luck is back to the level he was at his first three seasons in the league.
The key for Mahomes will be making sure he doesn’t press too much going against Luck. The Colts do a great job in pass protection, and ran the ball well in the win over the Texans, so the ingredients are there for them to again have a balanced, efficient offensive attack. If Mahomes makes any early mistakes, it could put them in the difficult position of having to come back against Luck and the Colts.
3. Can Eagles avoid blowout vs. Saints?
This won’t be easy. On Nov. 18, the Eagles went to New Orleans and lost 48-7. The Saints are rested, healthy and have a huge home-field advantage, going 7-1 at home this season with a league-high 22 TD passes (tied with the Rams). Even though this one should be closer than last time, it’s going to be very difficult for the Eagles to pull the upset.
The Eagles went 4-4 on the road this regular season and outscored foes by only two points. They have had to patch together their secondary due to injuries, and Mitchell Trubisky threw for 303 yards against them Sunday. That’s where Drew Brees can take advantage.
Oddsmakers are giving the Saints a 9-point advantage, the highest of any divisional-round game. The Eagles showed in the Chicago game that they are lacking a big, physical back, as Darren Sproles can’t be asked to run for scores in the red zone. Still, it’s amazing what Nick Foles has been able to do to get the Eagles this far. Perhaps he can summon more magic Sunday.
4. Will Chiefs’ defense cost them a title?
People around the NFL believe in Mahomes. They believe in Andy Reid. But the defense can’t stop the run and has big problems in pass coverage. You have to wonder if they wish they’d kept Marcus Peters, now with the Rams, given the issues at cornerback.
The Chiefs allow 26.3 points per game. Normally, that translates to seven to nine losses over the season. Mahomes and the offense have overcome it to go 12-4, but it’s been tougher down the stretch, in part due to the release of star running back Kareem Hunt after video of him pushing and kicking a woman in a February incident. The Chiefs barely escaped with a win over Baltimore, and lost to the Chargers and Seahawks down the stretch. Against playoff-caliber teams, it’s much harder to win shootouts each week.
Saturday’s matchup with the Colts could be just that. Luck is playing so well, along with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, that it’s easy to see them putting up 25-plus points, and their resurgent young defense could test Mahomes. The best part about the Chiefs defense is their pass rush, with Justin Houston, Chris Jones and Dee Ford. They’ll need them to make plays against a Colts team very good in pass protection this season.