The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
10 bold 2019 predictions
Big changes may be coming during offseason.
The NFL offseason is already underway, and the next few months will feature major roster changes. Here are 10 bold predictions:
1. The 49ers will add Antonio Brown and Earl Thomas, then improve to 8-8 or better.
The Steelers are likely to trade Brown after a flurry of late-season incidents, and the 49ers are expected to be interested. The team claimed it had made perhaps the best offer to acquire then-Raiders edge rusher Khalil Mack last summer before he ended up with the Bears, and it makes sense that it could be similarly aggressive in trying to deal for Brown.
The Raiders have more ammo to get a deal done, given their three first-round picks, but the Steelers would prefer to move Brown out of the AFC. The 49ers can offer the fourth pick in the second round.
Signing Thomas to play free safety is a natural fit for the 49ers. The team’s defensive system — mostly cover-one and cover-three — is a copy of what the Seahawks use. Throwing in two players with budding Hall of Fame credentials to go with the healthy returns of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon should allow the 49ers to challenge the Rams and Seahawks in the NFC West.
2. Le’Veon Bell will sign with the Texans.
Why would the Texans pay $15 million per year for a running back when they already have Lamar Miller? Simple: QB Deshaun Watson is still on his rookie contract, so this is the time to make bold investments in an attempt to advance deeper in the playoffs.
They may need to outbid their AFC South rival in Indianapolis. The Colts beat the Texans in the first round of the playoffs; they have more than $100 million in salary cap room and three draft picks in the first two rounds; and they appear to be AFC contenders behind Andrew Luck.
3. In response to the non-call in the NFC title game, the NFL will add an eighth official to serve as a video consultant.
Based on the missed pass-interference call in the Saints’ loss, the NFL will need to find a way to fix future errors. The league does communicate with referees in-game, but it doesn’t like to make rulings that change judgment calls. The competition committee typically isn’t fond of making interference calls reviewable, either. That’s why adding an official could be the solution.
4. Nick Foles will be the Jaguars’ starting QB.
The Eagles took the first step by picking up Foles’ $20 million option. Foles then agreed to pay the Eagles $2 million to become a free agent, which gave them the chance to get draft-choice compensation for him. They could place the franchise tag on him and then trade him. If they don’t franchise him, they could receive a thirdround compensatory pick in 2020.
I predict the Eagles will franchise him and trade him to the Jags for a third-round pick in this year’s draft. By doing that, the Eagles control where he ends up, preventing him from going to division rivals.
5. The Cowboys will target Sean Payton as their next coach.
Despite winning a playoff game this year, Jason Garrett is on the hot seat. His contract is up at the end of the 2019 season. If the Cowboys don’t advance further in the playoffs, owner Jerry Jones might arrange for a trade with the Saints for Payton.
Payton is loyal to the Saints and has as much power as any coach in football. But he has been with the Saints since 2006, and Drew Brees is heading into the final stretch of his Hall of Fame career. If Brees were to retire, Payton might be open to a return to Dallas, where he has family.
6. But first, the Saints will return to the NFC championship game.
This might not seem all that bold, but it will be difficult for the Saints to recover from their loss to the Rams. Still, this team is good enough to make another run. Brees may have lost some ability to throw deep, but the Saints have enough weapons on offense and are good enough on defense to win the NFC South again — and at least one if not two or more playoff games.
7. The Dolphins will tank to get a top quarterback in the 2020 draft, paving the way for the Patriots to get back to the Super Bowl.
For whatever reason, the Patriots struggle in Miami, losing five of their past six road games against the Dolphins. Their 2019 matchup should be easier. The Dolphins are expected to release Ryan Tannehill this offseason, and the 2020 draft appears to have a stronger group of signal-callers than this year’s. New England has a realistic shot at a 6-0 AFC East record, which could pave the way to another firstround playoff bye.
8. Mike Tomlin won’t get a contract extension until he cleans up the Steelers’ locker room problems.
Tomlin’s job has never been in jeopardy, and the Steelers would love to give him another contract, extending the deal that has him signed through 2020. But the Brown and Bell situations of the past year have made it clear there are significant problems. Tomlin is going to have to fix those issues and get the team back to the playoffs.
9. Owners and the NFLPA will reach a deal before the 2021 season.
There is no question that, in the next labor deal, the players want more guarantees in contracts, more money for the league’s “middle class” and for independent arbiters to take away some of Commissioner Roger Goodell’s authority in discipline disputes. But there is significant doubt as to whether a lockout would change the union’s strength in bargaining. The league is getting younger, and the average length of an NFL career has dropped, making it harder for a player to make up for lost pay in a strike situation.
10. Scoring will drop by close to a point per game.
NFL offenses had an amazing 2018. But by the end of the season, defenses began to catch up. Coordinators figured out schemes to slow many offenses, and players adjusted their techniques to avoid helmet-hitting and roughing-the-passer penalties. The game still favors offense but 2019 won’t be quite as high-scoring as 2018.