The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
U.K. lawmakers nix 'no-deal' Brexit
Having twice thrown out Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan for Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, the fractious British Parliament on Wednesday also rejected the idea of a disorderly “no-deal” exit from the bloc at the end of the month.
What happened
Wednesday’s 312-308 vote against a no-deal exit at any time should clear the path for Parliament to request extra time for the withdrawal process, known as Brexit, in a vote scheduled for today. The question then becomes for how long and to what purpose.
After two years of delay and dithering, decisions have taken on a new urgency with the March 29 deadline to leave the bloc near. The detailed agreement negotiated by May and the EU — which Parliament rejected in January and again Tuesday — would have dictated Britain’s relationship to the bloc after that date.
What a no-deal exit would mean
To leave without any agreement could mean chaos, with ports clogged, industries crippled, and supplies of some food and medicines running out.
Just how bad it could be came into focus Wednesday, when the government published contingency plans for tariffs in the event of a “no-deal” Brexit. Under a new regime, tariffs would be placed for the first time on some goods from the EU, while some on products from the rest of the world would be dropped.
The practical effect would be to undercut some farmers, for example, and add to the costs of some imported goods. Economists have said the damage to Britain’s economy would be severe.
Complicating factors for a delay
The EU has its own reasons for wanting to avoid a no-deal Brexit. But it has its own needs, too.
The bloc would have no practical objections to a two-month delay, except that it could be too little to accomplish anything. A longer delay would give more time for a change of direction from Britain — perhaps a general election or a second referendum — but would cause big legal and political complications.
One complicating factor is the May 24 start date for elections to the European Parliament. With Britain planning to leave the bloc, neither of its main political parties wants to contest these elections.
And if deadlock still exists after delay?
If Parliament were still deadlocked at the end of May or June, and Britain requested a second time out, things would get sticky, said Joachim Fritz-Vannahme, senior adviser for Europe at the Bertelsmann Foundation, a research institute based in Germany. At that point it would be tough to keep Britain a member of the club if it had not contested European elections. So there would need to be a much bigger change to justify it — perhaps another vote like the one in 2016, in which 52 percent of British voters endorsed Brexit.
What’s next
If Parliament does vote for an extension today, Britain’s request will have to be approved by all 27 other EU nations at a summit in Brussels next week.