Hoping Great Britain won’t become just little England

LONDON — Over the centuries, Great Britain spawned the Industrial Revolution and nurtured representative democracy. It ruled the waves and created common law. It nurtured the first anti-slavery movement and stood up to Hitler.

And now Britain has gone nuts.

To paraphrase Churchill, if the nation should last for 1,000 years, people may look back and say: This was their saddest hour. Actually, never mind: Brexit may cause the United Kingdom to fragment, so the country might not last a decade more, let alone last a millennium.

The U.K. is headed for a new election Dec. 12, at a time when both its major parties are headed by people who should never be trusted anywhere near Downing Street. What’s more serious is the likelihood Prime Minister Boris Johnson may eventually manage to drag a wearied Britain out of the European Union.

It’s baffling for friends of Britain to see Johnson leading in the polls as he recklessly pursues a path that is damaging his country economically and risks dismembering it.

Economists largely agree

Brexit will cause trade and GDP to suffer. One study estimates Britain may already be 3% poorer simply because of planning for Brexit. Another puts the long-term decline at 3.5%; a different one estimates a 6% drop in the medium term. As The Economist magazine noted, Johnson’s Brexit plan would be even worse for the U.K. economy than that of his predecessor, Theresa May.

Johnson’s Brexit would leave Northern Ireland more integrated with Ireland than with the rest of Britain. And as religion becomes less important on both sides of the border, pressure for Irish unification will grow. One recent poll found a small majority in Northern Ireland in favor of leaving the U.K. and merging with Ireland — although the brakes may come from an Ireland wary of inheriting the weaker Northern Ireland economy.

In Scotland as well, a poll shows a plurality now in favor of independence.

Pragmatism may restrain Scots in the end, for Scotland presumably would then be out of the EU and would find itself creating a border with England as well. It’s far from clear the EU would welcome Scotland back, for fear of encouraging separatists in places like Catalonia.

Even Wales seems fed up. One survey found that 41% of people in Wales would favor separation if they could remain in the EU.

A fractured Great Britain would no longer be great; ultimately, all that would be left might be England.

A mighty union that had lasted hundreds of years would have been torn asunder by the demagoguery of politicians like Johnson who can’t manage even their personal lives, let alone a nation.

London is a tribute to the great man theory of history, with statues and street names and monuments underscoring how leaders change history. Yes, they do — and if the U.K. fragments and Britain’s economy continues to decline, it will be because of the foolhardy and mendacious campaign by Johnson and his enablers.

This election reflects sordid calculations all around: Johnson hoping he can win a majority, the Scottish National Party wanting the balloting over before it is discredited by a sexual assault trial next year involving its former leader. If no party wins a majority, it’s possible we’ll be back where we started, or Labour will cobble together a government with the Liberal Democrats and hold another referendum on Brexit. I hope so.