Report may contrast healthy 2020 start with weaker past

January figures due today are projected to show U.S. employers added about 163,000 jobs — less than last year’s 176,000 average but still enough to keep unemployment at a half-century low. Wage gains are forecast to rebound from a surprise slump in December.

Annual long-term revisions also due today are anticipated to trim the robust job gains of recent years. A preliminary projection released in August showed the number of workers added to payrolls will likely be revised down 501,000 in the year through March, or almost 42,000 a month. Today’s report will include historical revisions for all of 2019.

Revisions may show “the past wasn’t as rosy as we thought,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies. “That’s again another reason to think that the deceleration in payroll growth is something we’re going to be living with going forward.”

Some numbers suggest the possibility of a better-than-expected payrolls reading today. The ADP Research Institute on Wednesday reported U.S. companies added 291,000 jobs in January, the most since 2015, as hiring surged in weather-sensitive sectors such as leisure and hospitality and construction.

But even a big downward revision won’t change the overall picture of labor-market tightness. The participation rate for prime-age workers, or those ages 25 to 54, is the highest in a decade. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated his desire to sustain the expansion “so that the strong job market reaches more of those left behind.” Companies complain about finding qualified workers, and job openings, though declining, still outnumber the unemployed.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell wants expansion to sustain to keep the job market strong.