Europe’s next big gamble: That United Kingdom will blink first

Union authorities set limits on mediation; Britain wants flexibility.

The European Union is betting that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants a trade deal so much he will compromise to get one.

With talks between the sides locked in a stalemate, and the chances of agreement before a key summit in June looking slim, EU officials say they see no reason to change tack. When chief negotiator Michel Barnier warned on Friday that an agreement may be impossible to reach, his comment was as much to do with putting pressure on the U.K. to back down as it was about signaling an imminent collapse of the talks, they said.

“To make progress in this negotiation — if it is still the U.K.’s intention to strike a deal with the EU — the U.K. will have to be more realistic,” Barnier said.

EU officials are aware that is a big ask for a government led by a group of politicians who not only supported Brexit, but they also think Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, gave away far too much in her negotiations over the country’s exit. But the bloc is still betting that the closer the U.K. gets to the end of the transition period on Dec. 31, the more likely it is to back down.

It’s no small gamble, all the more so because the U.K. is expecting the EU to be the first to concede ground. Speaking to the BBC on Sunday, Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove urged the EU to “show just a little bit of their fabled flexibility” in the negotiations. One official, speaking on condition of anonymity after last week’s round of talks, characterized the process now as a game of chicken.

Barnier’s team has restricted room for maneuver because it is limited by the mandate it has been given by the bloc’s 27 governments. U.K. officials say that for the stalemate to be broken, Barnier needs new guidance that will enable him to become more flexible. That, however, would require the unanimous agreement of the EU’s national leaders.

There is no plan to seek a change to the mandate, and the EU will continue pushing for the U.K. to meet its demands in full, one official in Brussels said. The EU won’t give up on the talks and, for now, its strategy is to sit tight, he said. That indicates Brussels doesn’t expect progress before June’s scheduled stocktaking summit.

While the U.K. merely wants a trade deal with Europe, the bloc wants a wide-ranging agreement covering many policy areas from law-enforcement to aviation rules — and it wants a single way of governing the entire deal. This would also involve the European Court of Justice, something to which the U.K. is opposed.

The EU finding a happy medium with the U.K. is more tenuous due to Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his party believing the PM’s predecessor conceded too much.

PHOTOS BY ASSOCIATED PRESS Michel Barnier, the EU’s Head of Task Force for Relations with the U.K., believes progress will come only if Britain is more realistic in negotiating, he noted Friday.