Pandemic may mean 500,000 fewer births in U.S., economists say

In a new report, economists writing for the Brookings Institution estimate that the United States could see “on the order of 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births next year” as a result of the economic recession triggered by the novel coronavirus.

The economists, Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip Levine, derive their estimates from data on birthrates during the Great Recession and the 1918 flu pandemic. Both of those upheavals had a considerable negative impact on fertility.

During the Great Recession, for instance, states that experienced steeper job losses tended to see more dramatic reductions in their birth rates from 2008 to 2011. Looking at the country as a whole, they found that “in 2007, the birthrate was 69.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44; in 2012, the rate was 63.0 births per 1,000 women.” That works out to a 9% drop, or roughly 400,000 fewer births.

The reason? Children are expensive, and having a child is in many ways a financial decision. The loss of a job or otherwise uncertain prospects for a steady income lead many would-be parents to postpone having kids until things are more settled. In economic jargon, birthrates are “procyclical”: They tend to rise during times of economic growth and fall during recessions.

Birthrates also track pandemics, as the fertility data from the time of the 1918 pandemic shows. Crucially, in the wake of the 1918 pandemic, American mothers didn’t “make up” for the previous decline in fertility by having more kids.