The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

When and if majors return, it will be a wild, weird, random season

- Michael Cunningham Only In The AJC

I’m assuming that MLB and its players soon will reach a deal for the 2020 season that looks something like the latest reported offers from both sides. I know that’s not a safe assumption. The players’ union has twice shot down reports that MLB believed the sides had a “framework” for a deal and, oh yeah, there’s the challenge of playing in home stadiums during a pandemic.

But let’s say MLB plays something between the 60 games proposed by owners and the 70 proposed by players, followed by a 16-team postseason. What kind of season will that be for baseball? And what will such a short season mean for the Braves?

Basically, MLB’s players and teams will roll the dice and hope they come out on the right side of the randomness. Baseball requires lots of games to separate the lucky from the good. That won’t happen when playing less than 40% of the usual 162-game schedule. Placing more than half the teams in the playoffs only adds more chance to the equation. Hot streaks will produce MVPs and Cy Young winners (if those awards are given out). The World Series champion could be so lucky as to be unworthy of a title. It will be another legitimacy debate for a sport that has more than any other. There will be calls for asterisks all over this season.

I welcome a season of any length, so long as the health of participan­ts is protected. Focusing on season-long arcs is to forget that there is value in individual games. I’ll watch them even if the overall outcomes don’t seem fair.

And as stated previously in this space, I like the idea of a

short-season sprint to an expanded postseason. That was a month ago, when MLB proposed an 80-game season with seven playoff bids per league. A 60-70 game season with eight postseason spots per league is a faster race to a wilder postseason.

Still, my emotional desire for entertainm­ent clashes with my rational need for enough data to confirm what I think I’m seeing. It’s hard for me to get my head around a baseball season with no more than 70 games even if I’m ready to see it. It could be both fun and frustratin­g.

The Braves might be among the losers in a short season. They are a good team, and good teams tend to prevail over the long haul. In the short term, they can lose to inferior teams because of flukes.

I consider the Braves to be a worthy favorite to win the National League East and second to the Dodgers in the NL. At least that’s what I thought in early March, when it still seemed as if there would be a normal schedule. Nothing has been normal since then, so now who knows how the Braves, Dodgers or any other team will perform?

There’s no word yet on the opponent breakdown for the proposed schedules. Presumably, the Braves will play a slate with a high percentage of games against NL East opponents. That’s not ideal. In the

NL’s other two divisions, only the Dodgers and Cardinals look to be in their class. The East has more challenger­s. The Nationals lost third baseman Anthony Rendon since winning the World Series but have the NL’s best rotation. The Phillies improved their pitching and aren’t apt to have lousy injury luck again (that’s a variable that’s a lot more important in a short season). The Mets are a threat to stop being the Mets and finally play to their potential.

It’s hard to imagine the Braves being one of the seven NL teams left out of the playoffs. They are good enough that such an outcome would seemingly require an incredible run of bad luck. Yet there are some reasons to think the short season might hurt them, especially at the plate. Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies tend to slump in May. That isn’t a big deal when the season lasts until October, but 25 or so bad games means a lot if there’s only 60 to 70 games. Freddie Freeman can go on tears but he won’t have much time to do it this year.

It’s not clear if the short season would be a net benefit for Braves pitchers. My guess is that it’s good for the veterans in the rotation, not so good for the younger pitchers. I figure relief pitchers will be fine since they are accustomed to working in small samples and being ready whenever needed.

The delayed start could help LHP Cole Hamels. He suffered a shoulder injury in February that was projected to keep him out beyond opening day, but presumably will be ready when the season begins. Veteran RHP Mike Foltynewic­z still is hard to figure out, but generally, he’s been better early in the season than later during his career. The shorter season is unfortunat­e for young starters Mike Soroka and Max Fried. They’ve lost out on needed seasoning. Soroka and Fried have a combined 73 starts and 425⅔ innings. Now they will pitch during a truncated season with heightened stakes for every game.

It could turn out that all the usual analysis ends up meaning little this season. Everything is based on the normal understand­ing of a typical year: offseason training, full spring training, 162-game season. Changing those variables for players who are accustomed to ritual could have unexpected results.

There will be lots of noise in the statistics this season. Sabermetic­s has tried to figure out what sample size is necessary for numbers to become reliable measures of performanc­e. The conclusion is that it doesn’t take long for three of the most important numbers for pitchers: strikeout rate (70 batters faced), walk rate (170) and fly-ball rate (70 balls in play).

It’s a bit different for hitters. Strikeout rate (60 plate appearance­s), walk rate (120) and extra-base hit rate (160 at-bats) stabilize early. It takes much longer for slugging percentage (310 PAs) and on-base percentage (460 PAs). And batting average is a notoriousl­y noisy statistic, with more than one full season of at-bats needed for it to be a reliable measure of performanc­e.

Even great hitters can produce bad numbers over a small sample of games. MLB’s best, Mike Trout, went hitless in 37 games last season (minimum four plate appearance­s). Over those 165 plate appearance­s, Trout had 45 strikeouts and 35 walks and posted a .242 OBP. Trout wasn’t good for nearly 30 percent of his 134 games. He was AL MVP because he was great in so many others.

If this season is played, he and other MLB players won’t get enough chances to balance out their bad stretches with good ones. That’s a circumstan­ce created by COVID-19 and the protracted negotiatio­ns of owners and players. I’ll probably end up regretting my assumption that they’ll reach a deal. If they do, what follows will be a wild and random season.

That beats no season at all, but get ready for some weird outcomes.

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 ?? CURTIS COMPTON / CCOMPTON@AJC.COM ?? There are some reasons to think the short season might hurt Braves such as Ozzie Albies (left) and Ronald Acuna, who tend to slump in May.
CURTIS COMPTON / CCOMPTON@AJC.COM There are some reasons to think the short season might hurt Braves such as Ozzie Albies (left) and Ronald Acuna, who tend to slump in May.

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