Even in full seasons, unlikely champions emerge

The best team in baseball doesn’t always win the World Series. In fact, as the playoffs have evolved it has become less likely with each iteration. If we rewind each season to the start of the playoffs and work out the chances each team had to win, we would find the top team wins about a third of the time, and that includes half of the winners occurring at a time when there were just two teams vying for the championship.

For example, at the start of the 2019 playoffs, the Washington Nationals had an 8% chance to win the World Series. Low chances to be sure, but not the lowest since baseball postseason adopted the one-game wild-card playoff format in 2012. The New York Mets are another team on the cusp of historic upsets. The Mets set futility records at the start of their foray into Major League Baseball but hit pay dirt in 1969 with 100 wins and a World Series win. Those “Miracle Mets” were one of the two worst-hitting teams to have won the World Series in the past 50 years, per traditional batting metrics, yet found a way to overcome their shortcomings (15% chance to win the World Series) and earn a title, making them one of the most memorable postseason performers in baseball history.

To determine how likely each squad was to win the World Series before the postseason began, we looked at the path each team needed to walk to win it all. Chances are determined by simulating the postseason using actual and expected win-loss records during the regular season.

One last note: To adjust for the way the playoffs have evolved we are segmenting the list into four distinct periods, one for each playoff format used by Major League Baseball since 1903.

1993 to 1969: World Series only

■ 1906 Chicago White Sox

■ 31% chance to win the World Series

■ The White Sox had a daunting task during the 1906 campaign. The “Hitless Wonders” batted .238 (not including pitchers) during the regular season, the worst in the league and second-worst in baseball, yet managed to vanquish their crosstown rivals, the heavily favored Chicago Cubs. The Cubs were entering the playoffs with 116 wins in 154 games, a winning percentage record (.763) that still stands today.

1969 to 1993: Two rounds

■ 1987 Minnesota Twins

■ 11% chance to win the World Series

■ The Twins won 85 games during the 1987 regular season. We would expect a team with a similar run differential as Minnesota

(786 scored and 806 allowed, minus-20 run differential) to win just 79 games. If we adjust again for the sequence of events that occurred, we would reduce those expectations to a 74-win season. In other words, these Twins were lucky to have been a part of the playoffs at all, let alone world champions. Only the Miracle Mets of 1969 exceeded expectations by more wins in a season under this playoff format.

1994 to 2011: Three rounds

■ 2006 St. Louis Cardinals

■ 6% chance to win the World Series

■ The Cardinals went 83-78 (.516) during the regular season, giving them the lowest winning percentage for any eventual champion. Two eight-game losing streaks, one in June and one in August, almost ruined their summer.

Their starting pitchers went 6-11 with a 6.22 ERA in June, allowing an OPS that was 30 percent higher than the league average. In August the bullpen struggled with strikeouts (14 percent, lowest in the NL for that month). Yet St. Louis managed to be the best of a weak National League Central Division, earning the division’s playoff berth on the last day of the regular season.

Oddsmakers gave St. Louis 7-1 odds to make it through the divisional round against the San Diego Padres and 5-1 odds to earn the NL pennant over the New York Mets. The Cardinals were also underdogs (+175 on the money line, meaning you won $175 for every $100 bet) in the World Series against the Detroit Tigers (minus210, meaning you won $100 for every $210 bet).

2012 to 2019: Expanded wild card

■ 2014 San Francisco Giants

■ 4% chance to win the World Series

■ San Francisco posted an 88-74 record, second in the National League West, and earned a wildcard spot, a daunting road for any playoff team. Since the wild card was introduced in 1994 only 13 squads managed to make an appearance in the World Series. Because of this, it was difficult to give the Giants much hope.

Oddsmakers posted 20-1 odds for San Francisco on Sept. 1, 2014 and they didn’t whittle those down to less than double digits until they were penciled in to the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals. They were also underdogs to the Kansas City Royals in the Fall Classic.

MATT SLOCUM / ASSOCIATED PRESS ▲ Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner and catcher Buster Posey celebrate after Game 7 of the 2014 World Series against the Royals.

CHARLES KRUPA / ASSOCIATED PRESS Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina jumps for joy after the Mets’ Carlos Beltran struck out to end Game 7 of the NLCS in 2006.