The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
» Jobless claims in U.S. show signs of finally coming down,
But U.S. economists are optimistic that further improvement is ahead.
A year after they first rocketed upward, jobless claims may finally be returning to earth.
What happened
More than 714,000 people filed for state unemployment benefits last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was upmodestly from the week before, but still among the lowest weekly totals since the pandemic began.
In addition, 237,000 people filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federal program that covers people who do not qualify for state benefits programs. That number, too, has been falling.
Why it matters
Jobless claims remain high by historical standards and are far above the norm before the pandemic, when around 200,000 people a week were filing for benefits. Applications have improved only gradually — even after the recent declines, the weekly figure is modestly below where it was last fall.
What’s next
But economists are optimistic that further improvement is ahead as the vaccine rollout accelerates and more states lift restrictions on business activity. Fewer companies are laying off workers, and hiring has picked up, meaning that people who lose their jobs are more likely to find new ones quickly.
“We could actually finally see the jobless claims numbers come down because there’s enough job creation to offset the layoffs,” said Julia Pollak, a laboreconomist at the job site Ziprecruiter.
But Pollak cautioned that benefits applications would not return to normal overnight. Even as many companies resume normal operations, others are discovering that the pandemic has permanently disrupted their business model.
“There are still a lot of business closures and a lot of layoffs that have yet to happen,” she said. “The repercussions of this pandemic are still rippling through this economy.”