The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Assessing the Braves’ rotation entering September
If the Braves are going to hang on and win their fourth consecutive National League East title, the rotation’s success is paramount. Each player has different points of emphasis to reach the same goal down the stretch.
The team is currently using a six-man rotation. While some will compete to continue making starts, others are tuning up for what they and their teammates hope is another October run.
A look at each of the Braves’ starters, how they’ve fared lately and what’s ahead:
RHP Charlie Morton
At 37 years old, Morton has shown no signs of decline. He held the Dodgers to one run —
outfielder Mookie Betts’ homer — on three hits over six innings Tuesday. He went toe-to-toe with Dodgers starter Walker Buehler,
a Cy Young candidate.
Morton’s fastball velocity (95.5 mph) is higher than it was in 2020 and 2019. He owned a 3.06 ERA over his last 18 starts entering Tuesday, when he faced the team that spoiled his Rays’ bid at a
World Series title last October.
For the Braves to make October — and find success in it — Morton needs to be at his finest. He usually ups his performance in the postseason, where he has a 3.38 ERA in 13 games (12 starts). The Braves’ rotation has become a strength, and Morton has led the way.
“He’s been everything that we hoped for,” manager Brian Snitker said. “He’s been everything and more than I think we thought we were getting (signing Morton last winter).”
Morton hasn’t publicly indicated any future plans, but it’s easy to see the Braves wanting to bring him back as the veteran in what will probably be a mostly young rotation. He’s been their most consistent starter in 2021 and the only one to avoid time on the injured list to this point.
LHP Max Fried
The Santa Monica native was scheduled to face his hometown Dodgers on Wednesday. Fried had a fantastic August, earning a 1.36 ERA in five starts. He struck out 28 while walking two over 33 innings. He surrendered only one homer. If that version of Fried is here to stay, the Braves are in good shape. Fried showed drastic improvement from June and July, when he had a 4.13 ERA in 10 starts. The southpaw is trending upward at the right time.
Fangraphs’ Carmen Ciardiello did an insight breakdown of Fried’s approach and how he’s become one of baseball’s best starters recently. In it, Fried is acknowledged as having the fourth-highest WAR among starters since the July 30 trade deadline. He trails only Adam Wainwright (St. Louis), Robbie Ray (Toronto) and Frankie Montas (Oakland). His 1.3 WAR ranks just ahead of Dodgers starter Max Scherzer, whom Fried was set to oppose Wednesday.
RHP Ian Anderson
Back from a lengthy absence due to shoulder inflammation, Anderson logged 5-2/3 scoreless innings against the Mlb-best Giants in his return.
“It felt great,” Anderson said. “It felt normal being out there, pitching in front of the fans and kind of getting that adrenaline rush back. The (shoulder) rehab process went really well, so I’m just looking forward to contributing down the stretch here.”
Anderson has a 3.36 ERA over 19 starts in his first full season. There’s little reason to doubt him if he’s healthy. In fact, he’s arguably the most important part of the rotation for the final month. If he builds off his first start back, the Braves could have an impressive trio atop their postseason rotation in Morton, Fried and Anderson.
In his first October, Anderson had a 0.96 ERA over 18-2/3 innings. He was phenomenal and a large reason why the Braves came within a game of the pennant. Anderson coming close to that production in September would go a long way toward the Braves reaching the postseason again.
RHP Huascar Ynoa
For Ynoa, it’sabout continuing what he’s achieved since returning from a broken hand that sidelined him for several months. He had a 2.60 ERA in three starts in August. He had a 16:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding opponents to a .167 average in that time.
Ynoa seems like he hasn’t missed a beat, which is more good news for a strong rotation. If the Braves make the postseason, Ynoa would be an asset there as well, either as a starter or reliever. Ynoa also is pitching to be penciled into the 2022 rotation, which is possible with a solid September.
LHP Drew Smyly
The lefty has surrendered seven homers across his last two starts, including giving up four in a loss Monday to the Dodgers. Smyly owns a 6.08 ERA in five starts this month. His velocity has dipped. He’s logged six innings in only one of his past 10 outings.
“I don’t think it’s arm strength, I think it’s just executing pitches,” Smyly said following Monday’s start. “I thought the life on my pitches was better today than it’s been in quite a while. Sometimes you don’t get the results.”
Certainly, it seems the southpaw is trending downward. It’s possible the team eventually removes him from the rotation as it returns to a five-man group, but that day hasn’t yet come. Smyly has time to turn it around.doing so would also help his market as he re-enters free agency this winter following a one-year, $11 million deal with the Braves.
RHP Touki Toussaint
The question with Toussaint is whether he’ll stay in the rotation. After a relief appearance last weekend, he’s expected to start against the Rockies in the Braves’ next series. Toussaint has already made his case to stick in the starting group, allowing two or fewer runs in six of his seven starts, but he’d also be an option to contribute out of the bullpen.
Toussaint is pitching for more than just this season, of course. He hasn’t yet established himself as a major leaguer, or even a starter long-term. He’ll hope to pitch his way into the Braves’ 2022 plans down the stretch.