The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Cunningham
than a cliche. They have one big advantage over teams that made the playoffs after getting blown out twice to start the season.
The Falcons have Matt Ryan at quarterback.
I know some Falcons supporters wish that weren’t so. They wanted to see Ryan traded during the offseason as part of a total rebuild. But that wasn’t feasible for the Falcons because of the salary-cap implications. It wouldn’t be easy for the Falcons to trade Ryan after this season, either.
Ryan’s 2022 salary-cap figure is $48.7 million. That’s way too high — the NFL’S biggest cap figure this year is $32 million for Russell Wilson — so something will have to give. But trading Ryan after the season would leave the same amount of “dead” money on the cap sheet for a player no longer on the roster. Moving on is hard when so much money is left behind on the books.
Ryan is the Falcons quarterback for this season and maybe next. That die was cast when the previous front office restructured Ryan’s contract multiple times over the past two years. The new regime adjusted his contract again after last season just to gain cap space to sign other players.
The Falcons can’t really rebuild as long as Ryan is quarterback. It’s also the case that Ryan gives them a chance to win now. I know that’s hard to believe after the blowout losses to the Eagles and Buccaneers, but some bad 0-2 NFL teams have recovered.
The NFL adopted a 16-game schedule for the 1978 season. According to the Pro Football Reference database, 19 teams since then have lost their first two games by 49 points or more. Five of those teams finished with an 8-8 record or better. One of them, the 1989 Steelers, qualified for the playoffs.
That Pittsburgh team lost its first two games by a combined 82 points. Only the 2019 Dolphins had a worse losing margin (minus-92) through two games since 1978. The 1989 Steelers started Bubby Brister at quarterback for 14 games.
In 2001, Washington began 0-2 with a minus64 scoring differential before going on to finish 8-8. Tony Banks was the starting quarterback for 14 games that season. The 1997 Seahawks were minus-59 through two games, then rallied for an 8-8 finish. Quarterback Warren Moon, who turned 41 that year, had one more good season left in him.
The 1994 Raiders and 1979 Jets are the other two teams to finish .500 or better after losing their first two games by a total of 49 points or more. The Raiders quarterback that year was Jeff Hostetler (a 9-7 record wasn’t good enough for the playoffs). For the 1979 Jets, it was Richard Todd.
Among the quarterbacks who rallied very bad 0-2 teams, Moon is the only one on Ryan’s level. He’s a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. For the other four QBS, their best seasons are about par with Ryan’s worst per Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric.
Ryan posted a 10 AV in 2009, his second pro season, after he had a 14 AV as a rookie. Ryan has a 13 AV or better in every completed season since then, with a high of 21 AV in 2016. Banks, Brister, Hostetler and Todd never had a season as good as 13 AV. They were much lesser quarterbacks than Ryan, yet won with teams that looked as bad as the 2021 Falcons after two weeks.
Ryan is 36 years old. There’s a chance he’ll suddenly decline. I haven’t seen any evidence of that through two games. Ryan’s numbers aren’t great, which is to be expected for a team with two big losses. But context is required.
Through two games this season, Ryan has completed 56 of 81 passes (69.1%) with 5.7 yards per attempt, two touchdowns and three interceptions. He ranks last in air yards per completion (2.63). The reliance on short passes and the interceptions are related.
The Falcons have leaned on the short passing game because the protection has been shaky against two good defensive fronts. Arthur Smith drew up short passing plays, and Ryan got rid of the ball quickly. The Bucs tipped two passes near the line of scrimmage, and they went for interceptions. The Falcons won’t be able to open up their offense until the pass blocking improves.
That can happen. The Falcons won’t face many opponents with better pass-rush groups than the Eagles and the Bucs. Four Falcons starters on the offensive line have played 32 career games or fewer. Young players have room to get better. If they don’t, veteran linemen Josh Andrews and Matt Gono are better options once they return from injured reserve.
Ryan still can make plays when he has time. He has two very good pass-catchers in Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts (the rookie needs more targets). The Falcons have shown some ability to run the ball. The blocking has been pretty good on those plays.
It’s plausible the Falcons will get better on offense. The 1979 Seahawks did it. They scored 17 points total in the first two games and finished the season ranked ninth in points per game. It’s also possible to make a run with a mediocre offense. Among the other four 0-2 teams with minus-49 point differential or worse, only the 1979 Jets ended up ranked better than 19th in scoring.
Those teams also didn’t play great defense. The best ranking in points allowed: 13th by Washington in 2001. If those five teams generally weren’t great on offense or defense, then you can guess that turnover differential was key. All of them had positive turnover differentials, but only the 1989 Steelers ranked better than 11th in the league.
In the NFL, not even 0-2 teams that get run off the field are doomed to failure. About 20 percent of them have finished 8-8 or better. And the Falcons have an advantage over the previous teams in their position. There are 17 games on the schedule for the first time, so they have more time to make up ground.
I don’t think the Falcons will end up being even mediocre. I can’t rule it out as long as Ryan is under center. Much worse quarterbacks than Ryan have pulled it off.