No deal unless sanctions lifted first

Days after outgoing South Korean President Moon Jae-in made possibly his last ambitious push to diplomatically resolve the standoff over North Korea’s nuclear program, the North on Friday rejected his call for a declaration ending the Korean War, making it clear it has no interest in political statements unless they bring badly needed relief from crippling economic sanctions. Nuclear diplomacy between the U.S. and North Korea has stalled over disagreements over a relaxation of the U.s.-led sanctions in exchange for steps toward denuclearization by the North. Analysts say North Korea is trying to use Moon’s desire for inter-korean engagement to pressure South Korea into extracting concessions from Washington on its behalf. Why is Moon offering a peace declaration?

The 1950-53 Korean War, in which North Korea and ally China faced off against South Korea and U.s.-led U.N. forces, ended with an armistice, but there was never a peace treaty.

In a speech at the U.N. General Assembly this week, Moon called for an end-of-war declaration while expressing hopes for a quick resumption of talks between the U.S. and North Korea. He said such a declaration among the leaders of the Koreas, the United States and China would help achieve denuclearization and lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula.

Moon’s proposal was an attempt to break the stalemate as he nears the end of his term in May 2022. North Korea had initially supported South Korea’s call for an end-of-war declaration when Seoul helped set up a summit between its leader, Kim Jong Un, and former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018 in which Kim aimed to leverage his nuclear weapons in exchange for economic benefits.

Such an end-of-war declaration would make it easier for North Korea to demand the U.S. withdraw its 28,500 troops in South Korea and ease sanctions. But North Korea lost interest in the idea after talks between Kim and Trump collapsed during their second summit in February 2019.

Why is North Korea rejecting Moon’s offer?

On Friday, Kim’s powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, and North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Ri Thae Song issued separate statements rebuffing Moon’s proposal.

Kim Yo Jong’s comments were directed toward Moon while Ri’s were aimed at the Biden administration, but they communicated essentially the same message — that North Korea isn’t interested in an end-of-war declaration unless Washington first discards its “hostile” policies, a reference to the U.s.-led economic sanctions and its military activities with ally South Korea.

Ri said such a declaration would be “premature” considering U.S. efforts to strengthen its military presence in the Asia-pacific region, which North Korea has increasingly used to justify the expansion of its own nuclear and missile programs.

Kim Yo Jong, who handles inter-korean affairs, used softer language toward South Korea, saying the North is willing to resume “constructive” discussions over improving bilateral ties if the South abandons its hostility and “double-dealing standards.”

She was clearly demanding that Seoul try harder to persuade Washington to offer “concrete actions to resume negotiations, whether they be the relaxing of sanctions or suspension of U.s.-south Korea joint military exercises,” which North Korea views as an invasion rehearsal, said Yang Moojin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

What are the prospects for nuclear talks?

The North Korean nuclear issue receded from the center of attention at this year’s U.N. General Assembly with newer global challenges such as the coronavirus, rising U.s.-china tensions and Afghanistan’s uncertain future.

But North Korea hates to be ignored, and its recent missile tests after months of relative quiet have raised speculation that Kim is once again flaunting its military might to wrest concessions from Washington if the long-stalled talks over his nuclear program resume.

Some experts say Kim is facing harsh domestic challenges, with pandemic-linked border closures further hurting an economy already battered by decades of mismanagement and international sanctions.

They say the sense of alarm could push North Korea to escalate its weapons tests in the coming months to pressure the world before offering negotiations to extract aid.

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AHN YOUNG-JOON/AP Visitors walk by a map of two Koreas showing North Korea’s capital, Pyongyang, and South Korea’s capital, Seoul, at the Imjingak Pavilion in Paju, near the border with North Korea, on Friday. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, said North Korea is willing to resume talks with South Korea if it doesn’t provoke the North with what she called hostile policies and double standards.