Federal Reserve chief sees inflation cooling next year

Powell says goal will continue to be full employment.

— Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that current high levels of inflation are likely to fade next year and won’t prevent the Fed from pushing toward its goal of full employment.

Powell spoke earlier this week about “tension” between the Fed’s two goals of maximum employment and keeping prices stable. In periods of high unemployment, inflation is typically low, and vice versa. But right now inflation has jumped above the Fed’s 2% target while the unemployment rate remains elevated, at 5.2%.

That can complicate the Fed’s mission, because keeping its benchmark short-term interest rate low — it is currently pegged near zero — can help boost hiring, but it could also allow inflation to worsen.

In comments before the House Financial Services Committee, however, Powell said he believes inflation will decline without higher rates from the Fed raising.

Current inflation “is a function of supply side bottlenecks over which we have no control,” Powell said. “But I would say that we do expect in the first half of next year to see some relief, depending on the bottleneck in question, and inflation should move down.”

The Fed chair also said that “we are far away from full employment, so that gives us an incentive” to keep interest rates low. Lower rates can encourage more borrowing and spending by consumers and businesses and ultimately lift hiring. Last week, Fed officials projected that their first interest hike won’t come until late next year.

Powell has also said that if there were indications that inflation could rise to unsustainable levels, the Fed would hike rates to bring it under control.

“We just have to balance the two,” Powell said.