The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
What to learn from metro voters for 2022
While incumbents took a hit, caution advised for the left.
Khalid Kamau even a few years ago was an unthinkable candidate — a Democratic Socialist in his 40s with a neck tattoo he hopes means “faith” in Chinese — but now he’s mayor-elect to South Fulton’s 100,000 residents.
There’s something else notable about his victory: Getting to that finish line first meant defeating incumbent William “Bill” Edwards, the city’s founding mayor and former county commissioner of 14 years representing the Southside.
Municipal contests are nonpartisan, but political experts say races like South Fulton’s show Democrats and incumbents may need to tread lightly in 2022 — there’s no room for error or scandal in the gubernatorial and congressional campaigns.
Charles Bullock, a University of Georgia political scientist, said turnover is caused by a mix of dissatisfaction with existing politicians and an increased thirst for innovative ideas. Add that to a prevalence a group of internet-savvy progressives and you get change.
But that comes with a catch.
“Democrats need to be careful,” Bullock said. “Those on the left may be very loud and insistent, but that’s probably not the path that would lead to Democratic success statewide.”
There were many attempted, and some successful, changeovers this election cycle.
There was the hot mayor’s race in Tucker between incumbent and former chairman of the Dekalb GOP Frank Auman and Robin Biro, who was a field director for President Barack Obama’s 2008 run. Auman’s victory disappointed many Democrats who felt they had a shot, which in itself is a surprise for that Republican stronghold in Dekalb County.
Bullock, known around the state as a top political scientist, grew up in Tucker. He said challenges coming from the left need community dissatisfaction to counter partisan loyalty.
Fulton will have six new mayors: in Atlanta, Fairburn, Johns Creek, Milton, Roswell and South Fulton. That means about 840,000 (or three out of every four) Fulton County residents will have a new person running their city.
Of those six cities in 2021, challengers in Fairburn, Roswell and South Fulton bested an incumbent. Those cities have roughly 215,000 residents, which is about 20% of the county’s population.
Those cities have numerous demographic differences, but all three electorates selected a new mayor. One storyline is that all three mayoral contests featured an incumbent leader implicated in a scandal.
In Fairburn, former Mayor Mario Avery easily defeated sitting Mayor Elizabeth Carrhurst. The incumbent handled so many dust-ups, including an AJC investigation showing she required that workers come to city hall early in the pandemic, that she had the City Council for the city of 16,000 residents hire a $30,000 image consultant.
South Fulton has weathered everything from firing its municipal court judge for allegedly bullying staff to a slander lawsuit resulting from a council member accusing a colleague of threatening her with a Taser. Kamau was among those who tried and failed to remove Edwards along with a council woman from office in 2019 because of a controversial development deal. Kamau garnered 59% of the vote this time around.
And there’s Roswell — which tends to vote more Republican than most of Fulton County — where about 60% of voters selected Kurt Wilson over incumbent Lori Henry. Wilson challenged Henry on the extreme mismanagement of a road project that cost the city millions of dollars.
Ripples of change also reached the council level. Roswell incumbent council members Matt Judy and Marie Willsey, who have publicly disagreed with Henry less than other members, also lost their seats this cycle.
The clearest examples of progressives beating incumbents can be seen on the Atlanta City Council. Joyce Sheperd and Cleta Winslow, each with decades of experience on City Council, were beaten by fresh faces in the Southside.
Jason Dozier bested Winslow to represent District 4, which the incumbent had held since 1994. Antonio Lewis, 34, ruined 69-year-old Sheperd’s effort for a fifth term representing District 12.
Like Lewis, Kamau is from his city. He was born in a house on Skyview Drive, he told the AJC just nine days after his victory. He is now one of the most notable Democratic Socialist mayors in the country.
Even if they don’t hold Kamau’s beliefs, Bullock said, many voters may link Democrats with the progressive ideals held by Democratic Socialists. However, that’s a tough sell for Democrats running statewide.
“You can’t promise to honor all of the requests
that [progressives] make of you because to do that would be counter-productive,” he said. “You’d end up alienating more voters than gaining.”
Kamau said he didn’t have trouble explaining his political views of Democratic Socialism to residents while he was campaigning. “I was unapologetic about my values,” he said.
“And that works there,” Bullock said, “but South Fulton I would argue is not representative in the state of Georgia.”
Bullock said Democratic leaders need to make an argument of “a half-loaf vs. crumbs” and remind progressives that Democrats are the alternatives to Republicans.
“You probably don’t want to do anything to feed that narrative from the right that you’re a Socialist,” he said.
Kamau said he already feels pushback, especially considering the majority of the council didn’t back his mayoral run. “You don’t beat a machine and the machine shuts down,” he said.
Bullock said Republicans aren’t immune to this situation, with some acting as adherents to former President Donald Trump and others trying to chart more of a middle course. He advises caution heading into 2022.
“Both parties have a chance of being pulled too far from the mainstream to win in a broader context,” he said.