Some hopeful trends emerge

The coronavirus is spreading faster than ever at the start of 2022, but the last days of 2021 brought some encouraging news about the latest wave of infections.

With growing evidence the omicron variant produces less severe illness than in earlier waves, governments are redoubling their focus on vaccinations and boosters, which are increasingly seen as the world’s ticket to “living with COVID.”

Still, the case numbers remain staggering.

In the United States, experts forecast that the omicron wave could crest in mid-january, but not before millions were infected every week. Across Europe, caseloads have soared to new highs and ushered in another bitter winter of social restrictions, mask mandates and shifting travel rules.

The holidays made things worse as colder weather and festive gatherings drove people indoors, where the virus circulates more easily. Airports and mass transit hubs were snarled with travelers after many people stayed home last year. And with many government offices closed, testing and case data were not being compiled as regularly, leaving officials and experts, at least temporarily, with an incomplete picture of how bad things were getting.

However, three trends are becoming clearer:

1. Omicron seems milder: A large British study determined that people who contract omicron are far less likely to be hospitalized than those infected with the delta variant. Other studies found omicron may not spread as easily to the lungs, a possible explanation of why its effects appear less severe.

2. Vaccines, especially boosters, help: The British study also underlined that the risk of hospitalization was significantly lower for people who had received two or three vaccine doses, compared with unvaccinated people. Among COVID-19 cases who developed symptoms, people who had three doses were 88% less likely to be hospitalized than those who had not had any shots.

3. Delta remains a threat: The earlier variant still accounts for a large share of new infections in many countries — including more than 41% in the United States, according to federal data from the week ending on Christmas Day — and is significantly more virulent.

Although many governments are loath to lock down again, officials are tweaking rules to account for omicron’s blazing spread. Two weeks ago, Paris became the latest European city to reimpose an outdoor mask mandate. South Korea joined France and others in setting an expiry date for its vaccine passes, hoping to push more people to get boosters.