FROM THE LEFT

Almost two years have passed since I began trying to draw people’s attention to the widening gap between economic perceptions and economic reality. At the time, the economic picture was mixed, with rapid job growth, yet also rising inflation. Even given that mixed picture, consumer sentiment seemed abnormally low.

I encountered a lot of pushback. Inflation was, after all, rising, and many economists warned that getting it back down would require a punishing recession.

But it didn’t. Unemployment is still near a 50-year low, yet inflation has been falling fast. Many economists who crunch the data are almost giddy with how well things are going.

Still, surveys of consumer sentiment and political polls show that Americans have a very negative view of the economy under President Joe Biden. There’s still no consensus about the reasons for this disconnect. But there are some new studies that shed some light on what’s going on, and I have a new way of looking at the numbers that may also clarify things.

Let me start with Briefing Book, a blog written by former government staffers. They have put together a model that lays out the historical relationship between fundamentals like inflation and unemployment on one side and consumer sentiment on the other.

Until the pandemic, models like this worked pretty well; but at this point, consumers appear to be far more pessimistic than they “should” be.

First, however, what’s happening to workers?

For a while, many pundits were insisting that whatever might be happening to gross domestic product, wages weren’t keeping up with inflation — true, for a while. But not anymore. By any measure, real wages now are higher than they were before the pandemic.

But never mind these numbers. Americans say that things are bad; shouldn’t we take them at their word?

One answer: Look at what they do, not what they say. As it happens, the plunge in consumer sentiment during the Biden years has been similar in magnitude to the plunge during and after the 2008 financial crisis. However, consumer spending has just kept powering along this time.

So consumers may say it’s a lousy economy, but their spending suggests they’re feeling quite good about their personal finan- cial situation. I guess they believe bad things are hap- pening, but only to other people.

Anyway, the analysts at Nikki Haley was not Briefing Book delved into especially kind during the one possible reason for last debate to the babbling this disconnect. It’s now badger Vivek Ramaswamy a well-established fact when she called him that partisan orientation “scum.” affects expressed views But Ramaswamy earned about the economy: Demthe appellation with ocrats are more positive unsettling ease. Moderawhen a Democrat holds tor Hugh Hewitt had asked the White House, Repubhim how he could juslicans more positive when tify banning TikTok in the the president is a RepubU.S., as he has vowed to lican. . do as president, when he

Oh, and one other himself uses the platform. point: Negative economic Rather than answer, the sentiment may not matter youngest candidate swivas much for the 2024 eleceled toward Haley and tion as many think, since screamed that Haley’s a lot of it is coming from own daughter had used people who would never TikTok “for a long time.” vote for a Democrat under OK, maybe it just felt any conditions. like a scream. Haley fired back in the politest way possible: “Leave my daughter out of your voice!”

Then Haley really did say, “You’re just scum.”

The audience, which had begun loudly booing, apparently agreed. Is Ramaswamy just insane? This is a serious question. At best, his opposition research staff needs to grow up. The worst they could come up with about Haley was that her daughter, like millions of other daughters around the world, once joined TikTok. Weak, cheap, immature — the list of derogatory adjectives could fill the rest of this column.

But Ramaswamy was just getting warmed up. The man seemed possessed, his fire-breathing assault on Haley bordering on something like hatred. When she was given an opportunity to respond to his personal attack, Haley bridged to China, driving this very strange candidate to utter distraction. Haley can’t talk tough on China, Ramaswamy seethed, because she once referred to our greatest enemy as a “great friend.”

Haley’s overture apparently was made during her tenure as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. She was recognizing China’s and Russia’s cooperation in negotiating with her to create “the largest set of sanctions against North Korea in a generation,” which, she said, led to the rogue nation’s cessation of ballistic-missile testing.

Sometimes one’s enemy is one’s friend. Sometimes not. But all things geopolitical are subject to change, which even Ramaswamy ought to know. In another zinger, Haley fired back: “You would never have been able to get that negotiation done.” I feel safe in saying that no one in the audience doubted it.

Honorable mention goes to Chris Christie, who should begin thinking about which Cabinet seat he wants. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis delivered his best debate performance thus far. He seemed less a deer in the headlights and more confident. He’s still in second place among GOP voters, waaaaay behind Donald Trump nationally, but Haley is closing in.

In a general election, however, it’s a toss-up between Trump, Biden and Haley.

On the key Democratic issue, abortion, she managed to thread a microscopic needle. Though pro-life, Haley said she doesn’t want to judge pro-choice women or be judged for her position. She urged letting states determine their own destinies while the country works toward consensus.

Consensus is a word we don’t often hear these days. My bet is women are hearing her loud and clear.