X- factors to play big roles Sunday

Each final four team has an unheralded but highly productive unit.

2024-01-26 - By Neil Greenberg

What’s an “X- factor” for an NFL team? It might be an under- noticed duo with game- changing abilities, capable of creating unpredictable and crucial plays. It also could be clutch performers in high- pressure situations, or momentum shifters. Essentially, the “X- factor” tries to capture an unusually impactful element of a team that could swing a game’s final result, even if it would never appear on a network highlight reel or Super Bowl promo.

Often, these players or position groups don’t get the attention of their peers or teammates. Using traditional and nontraditional metrics, we scoured the rosters and statistics of the four remaining playoff teams and picked a high- performing unit from each to get on your radar before its members become household names — or even if they never do.

■ Baltimore Ravens: Linebackers who excel in pass coverage

Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald — a hot head coaching prospect this month — has a lot of special players on his unit, but the ones to watch might be his linebackers, a versatile group with strong coverage skills who can disrupt the opponent’s passing game, limit big plays and contribute to game- changing defensive stops. If we weight each linebacker’s Pro Football Focus pass- coverage grade for the number of snaps played in coverage, Baltimore’s linebackers have the secondhighest weighted grade this season, including the playoffs. Only the New York Jets were better as a group.

The star here is former Georgia standout Roquan Smith, who is credited with 165 total tackles ( fifth- most among all defenders) and seven tackles for losses this season, including the playoffs. He is the sixth- highest- rated linebacker in pass coverage, according to Pro Football Focus, with only San Francisco’s Fred Warner ahead of him among linebackers whose teams are still alive, yet don’t call him one- dimensional. He has 25 stops at or behind the line of scrimmage against opposing rushers, too. Then there’s Patrick Queen, a first- round pick in 2020 credited with four pass breakups and an interception this season.

Those two could be key in defending Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, who is usually effective against opposing linebackers. Last week, Kelce caught both targets when matched with Buffalo middle linebacker A. J. Klein, gaining 44 yards and two first downs. In the Chiefs’ first- round win over the Dolphins, Kelce caught all three targets when he was matched with Miami’s linebackers, racking up 46 yards and three first downs. Yet against New England’s Mack Wilson Sr., PFF’s fourth- highestrated linebacker in coverage this season, Kelce had one catch for 4 yards. If Baltimore’s linebackers can stifle Kelce, the Ravens could be in terrific position to advance.

■ Kansas City Chiefs: Elite pass protection from the offensive line

Kansas City’s defense has improved significantly this season and has been given credit for much of the team’s success, especially with Patrick Mahomes and the offense having unusual struggles. However, don’t overlook how well the Chiefs’ offensive line is performing. Donovan Smith, Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor, when lined up together, have allowed 15 sacks over 462 Mahomes drop- backs, leading to a sack rate far below average ( 3.2% compared to a league average of 7.1%). It’s not all Mahomes’s athleticism and football IQ keeping this rate low; Pro Football Focus divides the responsibility for a sack between quarterback and blockers, and rates the Chiefs’ pass protection as the sixth- best in the NFL this season, including the playoffs.

Obviously, the more clean pockets Mahomes has, the better he will perform. His completion rate is 75% when not facing pass pressure, earning a passer rating of 108.0 ( sixth among qualified quarterbacks). Those numbers decline to 49% and 60.7 when facing pass pressure, per data from Pro Football Focus. Of concern: Thuney, a first- team AllPro, was injured in the divisional round and could be unavailable against the Ravens.

■ Detroit Lions: An unusually efficient running game

Coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson — another hot candidate in this hiring cycle — aren’t overly obsessed with running the football, but when they do run it, the Lions are one of the most efficient teams at gaining yards and improving field position. According to analyst Aaron Schatz, the Lions lead the league in adjusted line yards, a formula that takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on how many yards were gained, adjusted for down, distance, situation, opponent and the difference in rushing average between formations. For context, last year’s champion, the Chiefs, had the third- highest adjusted line yards. In 2021, the champion Rams ranked sixth, while the 2020 champion Buccaneers ranked ninth.

Veteran David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, a former standout at Georgia Tech, have a combined 2,149 rushing yards and 26 rushing touchdowns during the regular season and playoffs. Gibbs is averaging 5.3 yards per carry when facing seven or more defenders in the box, meaning the opposition is geared toward stopping the run. The league average is 2.1 yards per carry in these situations, per data from TruMedia. You have to give credit to Detroit’s offensive line, too, especially right tackle Penei Sewell, who is ranked No. 1 overall among all offensive linemen for run blocking this season, according to Pro Football Focus.

■ San Francisco 49ers: Disruptive pass pressure from interior defensive linemen

All eyes, and double teams, are on four- time Pro Bowl edge rusher Nick Bosa. That allows less- heralded defensive linemen Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead to create successful pass pressure of their own.

Hargrave, an offseason free agent acquisition who helped the Eagles reach last year’s Super Bowl, was this season’s fourthbest pass rusher among interior defensive linemen, per Pro Football Focus. He has 44 tackles ( eight for losses), seven sacks and 14 quarterback hits. Armstead, a nine- year veteran who has spent his entire career in San Francisco, has dealt with plantar fasciitis in his right foot but that hasn’t stopped him from producing 30 tackles, five sacks and 13 quarterback hits over 13 games. He is rated as the sixth- best pass rusher among interior defensive linemen, per Pro Football Focus.

Through their sacks, hits and hurries, Hargrave and Armstead are estimated to have prevented opponents from scoring 40 total points this season, per NFL playbyplay data. The 49ers had the league’s third- highest- rated pass rush this season, per Pro Football Focus, and they accomplished that without relying on the blitz — they had the league’s eighth- lowest blitz percentage. Hargrave and Armstead are a big part of the explanation.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA — Aryna Sabalenka avenged a U. S. Open final loss to former Atlanta resident Coco Gauff and will defend her Australian Open title as the overwhelming favorite against first- time finalist Zheng Qinwen.

Sabalenka attacked Gauff’s serve with her powerful returns and unloaded 33 winners in the 7- 6 ( 2), 6- 4 semifinal victory on Thursday night.

After her breakthrough sequence in 2023 that started with a first major title in Australia and ended in U. S. final loss to Gauff, Sabalenka is the first to reach consecutive finals at Melbourne Park since Serena Williams in 2015, ’ 16 and ’ 17.

“The key was that I was able to stay focused no matter what, no matter what the score was ... keep fighting for it,” Sabalenka said of the difference between her last two Grand Slam encounters against Gauff. “I’m super happy to be in another final of a Grand Slam. Hopefully I can do a little bit better than the last time.”

No. 12- seeded Zheng had a 6- 4, 6- 4 win over No. 93- ranked Dayana Yastremska, ending the Ukrainian player’s bid to become just the second qualifier to reach a Grand Slam final in the Open era after 2021 U. S. Open champion Emma Raducanu.

Zheng lost in the U. S. Open quarterfinals to Sabalenka last year in her best previous run at a major.

She said reaching the final a decade after Chinese compatriot Li Na won the Australian title almost completes a dream. One more win will finish it.

“It feels unbelievable. I’m super excited to have such a great performance today and arrive in the final,” said Zheng, who hasn’t faced a player ranked in the top 50 in six rounds. “I haven’t faced big seeded ( players) all the past rounds ... but, you know, it’s a match, so let’s see what’s going to happen in the final.”

Taking on No. 2- seeded Sabalenka will certainly be a big step up for the 21- yearold Zheng, who is playing in a major for only the ninth time.

Sabalenka said she’d been “ready for anything” against Gauff and was happy to have some support after facing the 19- year- old American in New York last September.

Gauff went into the semifinals unbeaten in 2024 after winning the title in Auckland, New Zealand.

She was on a 12- match winning streak in majors and attempting to be the first player since Naomi Osaka in 2020- 21 to win the U. S. Open and Australian Open back to back.

The first set contained six service breaks. Sabalenka led 5- 2 and missed a set point as Gauff went on a four- game roll to take a 6- 5 lead. Gauff also couldn’t serve out, with Sabalenka’s booming returns causing her trouble.

In the tiebreaker, Sabalenka raced to 5- 1. Chants of “Coco, Coco” went up around Rod Laver Arena but they didn’t help Gauff.

Almost a half- hour after her first set point, Sabalenka got five more. She clinched it with a big serve out wide.

Gauff won points on just three of her 17 second serves in the first set. That made her push harder and led to six double- faults.

The second set was tight again, until Sabalenka broke in the ninth game.

After missing her first match point when Gauff saved with a forehand winner to end a 12- shot rally, Sabalenka earned a second match point with an ace and clinched it after 1 hour, 42 minutes.

That she won’t win a second major before turning 20 in March wasn’t a huge concern for Gauff.

“I tend to be hard on myself, so today was like, ‘ Dang!’ But looking back overall at this stage of my life, it was a successful time.”