Trump’s No. 1 test? His No. 2 on ballot

Donald Trump has yet to choose a running mate for his third attempt to win the White House. But he does seem to have at least one litmus test for anyone who hopes to play the part of Mike Pence in a second Trump administration: You cannot say that you’ll accept the results of the 2024 election.

Trump has not laid this out explicitly, although he has already said that he will not commit to honoring the outcome in November. “If everything’s honest, I’ll gladly accept the results. I don’t change on that,” the former president said. “If it’s not, you have to fight for the right of the country.” We know, from the 2020 election, that anything short of a Trump victory is, for Trump, tantamount to fraud. He has also said that he would not rule out the possibility of political violence.

There is no need for Trump to say anything else; all the Republicans vying to stand by his side understand that they’ll lose their shot if they accept the basic democratic norm that a loss may not be overturned after the fact. When asked several times if he would accept the results of the 2024 election, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina — one of the leading contenders for Trump’s running mate — would repeat only a single, rehearsed statement. “At the end of the day, the 47th president of the United States will be President Donald Trump.”

Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota avoided a similar question, telling CNN that there were a “huge number of irregularities” in the 2020 election.

The obvious point is that Scott and Burgum demonstrate the strength of Trump’s grip on the Republican Party. The less obvious point is that by demanding this particular ideological commitment from prospective vice-presidential nominees, Trump is making a real break with political tradition.

First, let’s talk about the vice presidency. The office itself is one of the clearest examples of a constitutional afterthought in the American political system.

Although the framers of the Constitution gave considerable time and attention to the presidency there is little evidence of any particular discussion relating to the vice presidency.

The vice presidency comes with a handful of enumerated responsibilities. “The vice president of the United States shall be president of the Senate,” the Constitution says, “but shall have no vote, unless they be equally divided.”

As much as the vice presidency has had a limited role in governing the nation — except on those occasions when the vice president ascends to the main office on account of tragedy or misfortune — the vice-presidential spot on a presidential ticket has often been of enough electoral significance to give real weight to the choice.

The vice-presidential nomination has traditionally been an opportunity to balance the ticket, geographically, ideologically or in terms of experience.

Trump embraced the logic of balancing in his first campaign, choosing Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana as a sign of his commitment to the interests of conservative ideologues and the priorities of conservative evangelicals. If he were to embrace the logic of balancing a second time, he would choose a running mate who had some distance from the MAGA movement, someone who could pose as a “normal” Republican, uninterested in the most extreme commitments associated with Trump.

That is almost certain not to happen. Whether it is Scott or Burgum or Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio or even the noted canine killer Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota, Trump will select for loyalty. And this vice president will be expected to do what Pence would not: to keep Trump in office no matter what the Constitution says.