US troop departure will leave behind an uncertain Afghanistan
ISLAMABAD — The Biden administration’s surprise announcement of an unconditional troop withdrawal from Afghanistan by Sept. 11 appears to strip the Taliban and the Afghan government of considerable leverage and could ramp up pressure on them to reach a peace deal.
The Taliban and Afghan government can no longer hold the U.S. hostage — the Taliban with escalating violence and the Afghan president by dragging his feet on a power-sharing deal with the insurgents that doesn’t include him as president — because Washington made it clear that U.S. troops are leaving, no matter what.
Still, there are growing fears that Afghanistan will collapse into worsening chaos, brutal civil war, or even a takeover by the Taliban once the Americans are gone — opening a new chapter in the constant war that has lasted for decades.
Already, violence and seemingly random attacks on civilians have surged
since former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration reached a deal with the Taliban in February 2020 that had committed Washington to withdraw by May 1 this year. More than 1,700 civilians were killed or wounded in attacks the first three months of 2021, up 23 percent from the same period last year, according to the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan.
On Wednesday, the Biden administration set a new timetable. It said it would begin pulling out its remaining 2,500 troops on May 1 and complete the pullout at the latest by Sept. 11 — the 20th anniversary of the al-Qaida terror attack on the U.S. that had triggered the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan.
NATO announced it would follow the same timetable for withdrawing nearly 10,000 troops, 7,000 of whom are non-U.S. soldiers.
In leaving, Washington has calculated that it can manage its chief security interest — ensuring Afghanistan doesn’t become a base for terror attacks on the United States — from a distance.
Still, it is hoping to leave a country with a chance at peace. The U.S. is pressing the Taliban and the Afghan government to reach a peace agreement during an April 24 to May 4 conference in Turkey.
At the moment, it’s not certain that the Taliban will attend.
In response to the new withdrawal timeline, the Taliban said they won’t attend any conference on Afghanistan’s future while foreign forces are still in the country. A spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, said that if the original May 1 deadline is not met, “problems will be compounded.” Still, he did not explicitly threaten a resumption of Taliban attacks on U.S. troops.