Area hospitalizations could reach highest point
Waning immunity and relatively low vaccination rates could lead to a dramatic increase in coronavirus hospitalizations in Kern County over the next several months.
According to a state model that has accurately predicted the ebbs and flows of the pandemic, the next COVID-19 surge has the potential to overwhelm the local hospital system to a degree not yet experienced locally.
An update to the model’s methodology now takes into account the coronavirus vaccines’ waning efficacy after several months. Recent studies have shown protection against the virus may decrease over time, although the full extent is not fully understood, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
All adults in California are eligible for booster shots if six months have passed since they received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or two months have passed since they received the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, the California Department of Public Health said in a letter to health care providers Friday.
Depending on the public’s willingness to get boosters, the model predicts several scenarios that may occur in Kern County. In the worst-case scenario, the county will experience a peak case rate of 678 new cases per day Feb. 16, nearing the peak of last winter’s high point of 808 reported cases Jan. 3.
But most concerning for local health officials is the possibility that hospitalizations could exceed all previous peaks experienced throughout the pandemic. Under the model’s worst-case scenario, hospitalizations peak in Kern County on Feb. 22 with 522 patients, nearly 100 more than the previous high of
431 experienced on Jan. 9.
“This worst-case scenario would be catastrophic, if it did occur the way the models are predicting. We would not have the hospital capacity to handle the sheer number of patients that we would see,” said Kern County Public Health Director Brynn Carrigan. “Unfortunately, when we see such a significant increase in our cases, that typically leads to a substantial number of deaths that we could prevent.”
She said the county has trended along previous worstcase scenarios predicted by the model, but even a less severe outcome could still have significant impacts on health care locally.
“The other two models don’t paint such a catastrophic picture, but the moderate-case scenario does show that COVID will be around for quite some time,” Carrigan said. “Even in that moderate-case scenario, there are impacts to our health care system. It could mean that your preventative health care would be postponed. it could mean that your elective surgery could be postponed. We need to reduce that as much as possible.”
The county could face the fourth wave before the third has completely subsided. Unlike previous spikes in cases, which have followed sharp bell-curve patterns, the third wave has plateaued above 200 new cases per day since the beginning of October.
In a sign that the lack of social distancing and decreasing vaccine efficacy may be having an impact, cases have even slightly increased when the model predicted they would decrease.
The county’s low vaccination rate also plays a factor in the future spread of COVID-19. Only 54.6 percent of eligible Kern County residents are fully vaccinated compared to 66.5 percent of all Californians.
“The predominant problem in Kern County is vaccine reticence,” said Dr. Royce H. Johnson, professor of medicine at UCLA and chief of infectious diseases at Kern Medical. “There is a substantial segment of the population that simply don’t understand anything about mathematics and risk-benefit ratio.”
He lamented the anti-vaccine stance that has taken hold among certain portions of the populations, but he noted he has been able to overcome such opinions in about half of his unvaccinated patients.
“I tell people that you as the personal physician of someone have more influence with people than conceivably Tony Fauci does on television,” he said.
In addition to booster shots, he urged people to continue wearing masks and social distancing, as those measures have been proven to be effective against the virus.
Another factor in the severity of the next COVID surge is the number of children who become vaccinated. Even in the worstcase scenario, the model assumes children aged 5 to 11 are vaccinated at a similar rate as adults and children ages 4 and younger are vaccinated at about 50 percent beginning at some point in January.
The CDC recommends children aged 5 to 17 receive the Pfizer vaccine and other companies are pursuing authorization.
The fourth wave is projected to occur during a time when children will be in class, causing some parents to seek out vaccination.
“When they said school was going to be in-person, and that we did not have a real quality alternative for virtual learning, it was very hard on us,” said Camila Chavez, executive director of the Dolores Huerta Foundation, whose 6- and 9-year-old children were vaccinated this week. “We have lost loved ones, we have seen loved ones really suffer from COVID, and just knowing that children are also suffering, children have also died, for us, it was just really scary.”
She encouraged other parents to vaccinate their children and hoped for vaccination drives at schools.
But nearly two years into the pandemic, fatigue has set in for some residents. As the projected fourth wave approaches, some people are less receptive than ever to messages related to the pandemic. And that is a dangerous prospect for those who hope to reduce the fourth wave’s impacts.
“We have a family member who said, ‘We are over it, don’t talk to me about it anymore,’” Chavez continued. “Folks are tired, and they just want to get back to normal, and unfortunately we are not there — and we’re not going to be there for a long time.”