RFK Jr. could be trouble for Biden in swing states
When the story of the 2024 presidential election is told, it won’t matter much whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made it onto the ballot in deep-red states such as South Carolina or deep-blue ones such as California.
But it will matter a great deal whether Kennedy is on the ballot in purplish Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Considering the ample media coverage Kennedy has received, you might be surprised to learn that, so far, he has qualified to appear only on the Utah ballot. But the pro-Kennedy super PAC American Values 2024 says it has collected enough signatures in to qualify in Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and South Carolina.
There was some buzz about Kennedy trying to win the Libertarian Party’s nomination and thus gain wide ballot access, but that would be an incongruous alliance. You don’t run into a lot of libertarians who have called for the Koch brothers to be tried at the Hague as war criminals, or wished there were a law that would allow for punishing climate-change skepticism, as Kennedy has. Kennedy has also argued that state attorneys general should revoke the charters of the American Enterprise Institute and Competitive Enterprise Institute because they’re “oil industry surrogates.”
If Kennedy were to win the pro-freedom party’s nomination, he would likely be the least libertarian Libertarian of all time. Whatever Libertarian enthusiasm existed for Kennedy appears to be waning in light of his selection of California philanthropist Nicole Shanahan as his running mate.
So, he’ll have to focus on the state-by-state task at hand. In Arizona, candidates are required to collect 43,000 petition signatures; in Georgia, just 7,500 and in Michigan, 12,000. The Biden campaign, Democratic National Committee and state Democratic parties are increasingly acting as though they see Kennedy as a threat, and perhaps they will challenge the signatures. But, at this point, Kennedy appears likely to get on the ballot in those three key swing states.
The story in Nevada is a bit more complicated. On paper, Kennedy has qualified, as he has submitted the required 10,095 signatures. But those petitions only list Kennedy as the nominee, and the effort began before he chose his running mate.
The Nevada secretary of state’s office says that independent-candidate petitions must include both the presidential and vice-presidential candidates’ names to be valid. What has Kennedy campaign officials particularly irked is that they checked with the secretary of state’s office in November and were told, erroneously, that the running mate’s name wasn’t necessary.
In Pennsylvania, an independent candidate needs just 5,000 signatures by Aug. 1, and in Wisconsin, an independent candidate needs just 2,000 signatures by Aug. 6. Those will be easy layups.
As for North Carolina (which the Biden campaign regards as a battleground state; I’m skeptical), it’s one of five states where Kennedy’s campaign is running under the banner of the newly formed We the People Party because the ballot-access process for parties requires fewer signatures than for independent candidates. In North Carolina, Kennedy and his supporters must gather 13,865 signatures from registered and qualified voters by May 17; the Kennedy campaign says it has collected more than 23,000, just to be safe.
Barring some sort of absolute pratfall, such as falsifying signatures, Kennedy will be on the ballot in most or all of the 2024 battleground states. Which major-party candidate, Joe Biden or Donald Trump, has more to fear from Kennedy’s candidacy? At first glance, it might appear as though Kennedy would hurt Trump more, splitting the anti-incumbent vote, appealing to voters who just want to upend U.S. politics. But, so far, Kennedy appears to be hurting Biden more. And the selection of a Bay Area tech lawyer who previously was a big Democratic donor makes the Kennedy-Shanahan ticket seem like a more attractive option for disaffected voters on the left rather than the right.
No wonder Democrats are having flashbacks to Ralph Nader winning a small but pivotal number of votes from left-leaning Americans in 2000, and Jill Stein doing the same in 2016. Can’t blame Democrats for worrying that Kennedy could play a similar role this year.