Our best bets to win NFL awards this season
The 2023 NFL regular season is rapidly approaching as it’s now less than three weeks until the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hosts the Detroit Lions on Thursday, Sep. 7 at Arrowhead Stadium.
A little over a month ago, I made my preliminary predictions for three of the NFL’s major awards for the upcoming season.
With Week 1 nearly upon us, there’s no better time to dive into the betting market and pick who will in the Most Valuable Player (MVP), Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year (OPOY & DPOY) and Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year (OROY & DROY).
Here are my final picks and predictions on which players will win the five major awards in the NFL for the 2023-24 season.
NFL MVP: Justin Herbert (+1200)
After a career-high 38 touchdowns and making his first Pro Bowl in 2021, it was a down year for Hebert in 2022. While he played in all of 17 games, the
25-year-old signal caller clearly wasn’t the same once he was diagnosed with rib cartilage fracture after a week two hit against the Chiefs last season.
The injury clearly affected Herbert as he threw a career-low 25 touchdowns, posted his lowest yards per attempt
(6.8) and was sacked 38 times, the most in his three seasons in the league.
If Herbert is to have an MVP-type season, he’ll also need the team around him to stay healthy too. Impact players like offensive lineman Rashawn Slater, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and defensive anchor Joey Bosa all missed significant time last year.
Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts (+1100) and Jets’ QB Aaron Rodgers (+1600) are both in the top eight in shortest odds to win MVP while Giants’ QB Daniel Jones is all the way down at 50-1 (+5000) to take home the award.
With successful offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling plays in Los Angeles, I’m betting on Herbert to win his first NFL MVP at 12-1 odds as the Chargers challenge the Chiefs again for the AFC West title.
Honorable mentions: QB Josh Allen (+800), Jalen Hurts (+1100)
NFL OPOY: Lamar Jackson (+2500)
Since winning MVP in 2019, it’s been a tough go of it for Jackson. Injuries and inconsistent play have plagued Jackson and Baltimore’s skill players over the last three seasons.
However, there’s reason for optimism in 2023.
The Ravens drafted explosive WR Zay Flowers in the first round of the
2023 NFL Draft and signed Odell Beckham Jr. this offseason. Starting RB J.K. Dobbins was also recently activated off the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list.
With pass-happy offensive coordinator Todd Monken the new OC in Baltimore, I believe Jackson bounces back and puts up numbers close to his 2019 campaign as he propels the Ravens to a AFC North division title.
Jets’ star WR Garrett Wilson is a consensus 25-1 odds (+2500) while Hurts is
30-1 (+3000) and Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley is currently priced at 40-1
(+4000).
Honorable mention: Christian McCaffrey (+1400), Nick Chubb (+1800)
NFL DPOY: Myles Garrett (+600)
Staying in the AFC North, we head to Ohio for my DPOY pick in Garrett.
The 27-year-old pass rusher has posted back-to-back 16-sack seasons and missed only one game over that span. Despite being one of the best pass rushers in the NFL, Garrett has never won DPOY in his six-year career. He currently has the second shortest odds to take home the award.
A big reason that changes this season is that the Browns’ beefed up their defensive line this offseason with the additions of veterans Za’Darius Smith and former Giants’ second round pick in Dalvin Tomlinson. Teams won’t be able to strictly double team Garrett as Smith is coming off of a double digit sack year with the Minnesota Vikings.
Jets’ standout CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner is at 14-1 odds (+1400), Eagles’ Haason Reddick is 20-1 (+2000) and Giants’ defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence is at a consensus 65-1 (+6500) odds to win DPOY.
Already on a Hall-of-Fame pace, I’m betting on Garrett to win his first, and most likely not his last, DPOY trophy.
Honorable mentions: T.J. Watt (+800), Maxx Crosby (+1600)
NFL OROY: Jordan Addison (+1600)
The OROY this season feels like it’s wide open with numerous players at QB, RB or WR who could take home the award and it wouldn’t be a surprise.
I’m going a little outside the box here with Addison.
Currently at 16-1 odds, the 21-year-old wide receiver is already in line to get a significant amount of targets with veteran WR Adam Thielen heading to the Carolina Panthers this offseason. If superstar WR Justin Jefferson were to miss any time with injury this season, Addison could be QB Kirk Cousins new favorite target.
It’s also noteworthy that star WRs in Jets’ Garrett Wilson and Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase have won back-to-back years after no WR was awarded the trophy since Giants’ phenom Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014.
Honorable mentions: Bijan Robinson (+275), Jahmyr Gibbs (+900)
NFL DROY: Jalen Carter (+700)
Carter comes in as the second oddson-favorite to win DROY only behind Texans’ third overall pick Will Anderson (+400).
After several mock drafts and NFL insiders had Carter going to the city of Brotherly Love, the Eagles made it a reality when they traded up one spot with the Bears and selected him with the ninth overall pick in April.
The 22-year-old was widely considered one of if not the top defensive prospect in the draft but fell because of off the field issues and a poor Pro Day.
While there’s reasons to have concerns about Carter, I believe he’ll be a seamless fit in an Eagles’ defensive line that features the likes of veterans Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham.
His force has already been felt this preseason as he reportedly dominated the joint practices versus the Browns earlier in the week and nearly recorded a sack on his first snap in the NFL on Aug. 12 versus the Ravens.
Bet on the Apopka, Florida native to become the first player in Philadelphia Eagles to win DROY.
Honorable mentions: Devon Witherspoon (+1000), Jack Campbell (+1500)