Medals in forecast for US at 2024 Olympics
Ever since the Soviet Union disintegrated, the United States has owned the Summer Olympic podium, outpacing the rest of the planet at the last seven Games. That won’t change when the XXXIIIrd edition begins in Paris a year from Wednesday.
The Americans could exceed the 130-medal mark and once again will finish comfortably ahead of the Chinese, who have become their archrivals. Depth and breadth will do the trick; the United States should collect more than 60 medals from track and field and swimming combined and make the podium in everything from basketball to breakdancing. A sport-by-sport look at the prospects for 2024:
■ ARCHERY: After being blanked for the first time since 2008, the Americans should be good for a trio this time from Rio medalist Brady Ellison, Casey Kaufhold, and the men’s team.
■ ARTISTIC SWIMMING: The United States hasn’t made the podium since 2004 and is a long shot again. The team still has to qualify this fall, and Megumi Field and Ruby Remati were seventh at the World Championships.
■ BADMINTON: The United States won’t crack the Asian stranglehold or even win a medal, but Beiwen Zhang could reach the quarterfinals.
■ BASKETBALL: No reason to bet against a fifth consecutive double. The women will be gunning for their eighth consecutive crown and 10th of 11 while the men will be chasing their fifth straight and eighth of nine. The 3x3 women figure to retain their title while the men should be good for at least silver.
■ BEACH VOLLEYBALL: April Ross, who won gold in Tokyo, is pregnant, so the medal streak may end with her. The men and women didn’t make the podium at last year’s World Championships.
■ BREAKDANCING: The Bboys and B-girls will be spinning, swiping, and freezing on the Place de la Concorde in the Games’s newest sport. Victor Montalvo is favored on the men’s side and Sunny Choi will be in the women’s conversation.
■ BOXING: Since the Americans skipped this year’s World Championships in protest against the corrupt IBA, it’s difficult to gauge their chances. But the men’s three silver medals in Tokyo marked their best effort since 1988, and the women produced a bronze.
■ CANOEING: After making history last time by winning the first US women’s flatwater medal (a gold) since 1964, Nevin Harrison will be favored to repeat in the single. Nothing likely on the slalom course, though.
■ CYCLING: Jennifer Valente
should repeat in the women’s omnium, but additional medals are unlikely on the track. Leah Thomas and Kristen Faulkner both have podium shots in the road time trial, though. Felicia Stancil will be favored in women’s BMX, and Haley Batten should medal in mountain biking.
■ DIVING: Anyone who can beat the Chinese deserves two gold medals. Look for at least a bronze in women’s synchronized platform from Tokyo medalists Jessica Parratto and Delaney Schnell, though, and there are good chances in both women’s synchronized springboard and men’s springboard.
■ EQUESTRIAN: After missing out last time, the eventing team looks solid for silver after its best world performance in two decades. But replicating the Tokyo podium placements looks unlikely in dressage and jumping.
■ FENCING: We’ll know more after the ongoing World Championships, but figure on a sabre gold from Sherborn native Eli Dershwitz plus four medals in foil, including a women’s gold from Lee Kiefer, the Tokyo champion.
■ FIELD HOCKEY: The women have slipped off the radar since placing fifth in 2016. They missed the Games last time and will have to win the Pan Ams this fall to qualify, as will the men, who haven’t made it as a non-host since 1956.
■ GOLF: The Americans collected both golds in Tokyo with Xander Schauffele and Nelly Korda and could well do it again. Patrick Cantlay and Lilia Vu also could make the podium.
■ GYMNASTICS: With the Russians banned, the women should roll a seven with golds in the team event and vault, a silver in all-around with Shilese Jones, and an armful more in the apparatus finals. The men have their usual outside chance in the team event, and Brody Malone, who’ll be favored on high bar, has an all-around shot. The rising rhythmic team should be top five, and Jessica Stevens will be in the trampoline mix.
■ JUDO: The judokas were denied a medal in Tokyo for the first time since 2000. That likely will happen again unless Jack Yonezuka (73 kg) or Angelica Delgado (52) breaks through.
■ MODERN PENTATHLON: There hasn’t been a medal since 2000 and won’t be this time. Brendan Anderson has a shot at the top 15.
■ ROWING: After their unprecedented Tokyo wipeout, any podium finish will be an upgrade. The women’s pair and lightweight double should get there, and the eights should be in the chase.
■ RUGBY SEVENS: After their double wipeout last time, redemption is the goal. The women should collect the bronze. The men, 10th in this year’s World Series, still need to qualify.
■ SAILING: The American flotilla, left adrift at two of the last three Games, should catch a favoring breeze in Marseille. Stephanie Roble should make the 49er FX podium and Daniela Moroz has a chance in Formula Kite.
■ SHOOTING: The Americans will need to be up to the mark to exceed their six Tokyo medals, their best showing since 2008. Derrick Mein will be favored in men’s trap, and Vince Hancock has a strong shot at his fourth skeet gold. Alison Weisz is the woman to beat in air rifle, and Samantha Simonton should make the skeet podium.
■ SKATEBOARDING: The men picked up a pair of medals last time and should be good for at least a reprise. Pencil in Jagger Eaton and Tom Schaar for gold and bronze in the park event and Nyjah Huston for a street bronze.
■ SOCCER: After a disappointing bronze in Tokyo, the women want to get back to the gold standard. The men, who have missed four of the last five Games, are simply happy to be back.
■ SPORT CLIMBING: The United States established a foothold with a Tokyo silver. Noah Bratschi should solidify it with a bronze in the men’s speed event.
■ SURFING: Carissa Moore, the golden girl last time, should double up in Tahiti, and Caroline Marks could join her on the podium. Griffin Colapinto looks good for the men’s bronze.
■ SWIMMING: The Americans, who are dominating the World Championships in Japan, should exceed the 30 medals they won in Tokyo even without sprinter Caeleb Dressel, who’s coming off a sabbatical and didn’t make the global roster. Katie Ledecky should win both women’s distance events and Ryan Murphy both men’s backstrokes. Three relay golds also look likely. Katie Grimes should pick up an openwater bronze.
■ TABLE TENNIS: A medal still is a fantasy in a sport owned by the Asians, but respectability is within reach. Lily Zhang and the women’s and mixed doubles all have a chance of winning a match or two.
■ TAEKWONDO: Anastasija Zolotic made history in Tokyo when she won the first US women’s gold. This time the men should be back in the medal mix with Carl Nickolas at 80 kg.
■ TEAM HANDBALL: The men, who made it to the World Championships for the first time in more than two decades, are on the rise. But they’ll have to win this fall’s Pan Ams to qualify for the Games for the first time since 1988, as will the women for the first time since 1992.
■ TENNIS: The Yanks were blanked for the first time in Tokyo, and it could happen again on the red clay of Stade Roland Garros. Jessica Pegula has the best shot at the singles podium, and she and Coco Gauff could do it in doubles.
■ TRACK AND FIELD: Though they easily topped the table last time, the Yanks managed only seven golds. This time they could harvest more than a dozen, with sprinters Fred Kerley and Noah Lyles, quarter-miler Michael Norman, half-miler Athing Mu, hurdlers Grant Holloway and Sydney McLaughlin, shot putters Ryan Crouser and Chase Ealey, hammer thrower Brooke Andersen, pole vaulter Katie Nageotte, and the relays.
■ TRIATHLON: Two medals last time could be three now. Taylor Knibb and Taylor Spivey are podium candidates, as is the mixed relay.
■ VOLLEYBALL: The women, who won gold last time for their fourth straight medal, slipped to fourth at the last World Championships. The men, once perennial podium contenders, don’t appear to be within spiking distance.
■ WATER POLO: The women, who’ll be going for a fourth straight gold, got a harsh wakeup from the Italians, who beat them in the world quarterfinals. The men, who also went out in the quarters, are long shots for the podium.
■ WEIGHTLIFTING: The women, who won two medals in Tokyo, figure to do the heavy lifting again. Mattie Rogers (76 kg) should be good for silver, and Sarah Robles (87+) should collect her third medal. Nathan Damron (89) stands the best chance for the men.
■ WRESTLING: As impressive as Uncle Sam’s grapplers were last time, they could be even more dominant this time, figuring to medal in 15 of the 20 freestyle events. Kyle Dake (74 kg), Jordan Burroughs (79), David Taylor (86), and Kyle Snyder (97) should grab gold on the men’s side, and Dominique Parrish (53), Tamyra Mensah-Stock (68), and Amit Elor (72) on the women’s.