In Britain, Conservatives look to unleash the ‘real Rishi’

Prime minister, trailing in polls, seeks new image

LONDON — When Rishi Sunak arrived at the Conservative Party’s annual conference on Sunday, it was his first as Britain’s prime minister. The question looming for many attendees in the cavernous venue in Manchester is whether it could also be his last.

Facing a general election within 16 months, Sunak has restored some stability after a tumultuous period for Conservatives — who last year replaced two prime ministers within two months — but has failed to significantly narrow a big deficit in the polls against the opposition Labour Party.

All of this will play out against the backdrop of a cost-ofliving squeeze, a health service in crisis, and a continuing flow of asylum-seekers arriving on small boats — all political poison for Sunak. Labor unrest has subsided somewhat, but rail workers have deliberately timed more strikes to coincide with the Conservatives’ gathering.

Faced with those mounting challenges, Sunak has recently come out fighting, weakening environmental commitments in the first of several anticipated announcements aimed at seizing the initiative.

The idea, analysts say, is to recast the prime minister as a conviction politician, in the process revealing the “real Rishi” Sunak.

“If you look at his personal ratings, they are as low as they’ve ever been, and the party is still between 15 to 20 points behind in the opinion polls, so clearly he had to do something,” said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “Whether this is just, ‘For God’s sake, do something,’ rather than a thought-out plan, as they are trying to sell it, is more of a moot point.”

It is unclear whether this will be the last Conservative Party conference before the general election because Sunak can decide the date of the vote (though it must take place by January 2025). The most likely options are for the election to come next summer — before the 2024 Conservative Party conference — or in the fall, soon after.

Either way, this year’s meeting in Manchester comes at a delicate moment for Sunak, as he appears to have accepted that his strategy to date has left him staring at defeat.

“It’s his first conference as leader, and it’s very important in terms of defining himself,” said Robert Ford, a professor of political science at Manchester University.

Until recently, Sunak’s strategy had been to focus on five objectives: halving inflation, growing the economy, reducing debt, cutting waiting lists for health procedures, and stopping the arrival on British shores of asylumseekers in small boats.

Though the economic goals may be met in a technical sense this year, growth remains sluggish, prices are still rising fast, and few Britons feel better off. The health care target is well off course, and the arrival of thousands of small boats remains a symbol of the failure of the Brexit referendum pledge to take control of the nation’s borders.