Numbers tell story of Celtics’ hot start
With one quarter of the season complete, here are 15 stats and figures that help explain how the Celtics have raced to the top of the Eastern Conference, and what they must fix if they hope to stay there:
■ How much do the Celtics need Kristaps Porzingis to return from the calf strain that has caused him to miss the last four games? The regular starting lineup of Porzingis, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Jrue Holiday has demolished opponents by 27 points per 100 possessions in its 11 games together. When Porzingis is replaced by Al Horford, the group has been outscored by 13.9 points per 100 possessions, a massive 40.9-point differential.
■ The offense’s biggest shift has come in the post. A year ago, the Celtics ran post-ups on just 2.8 percent of their plays, ranking 24th. That figure has more than doubled to 6.7 percent, ranking fifth. And it’s working: Boston is scoring a league-leading 1.21 points per possession on post-ups, up from 1.0 a season ago.
■ Tatum has been the primary focus of this uptick, and he is putting up excellent numbers inside the arc. He has made a career-high 61 percent of his 2-pointers, more than 5 percentage points above his previous best. Also, he is shooting 74.8 percent from within 5 feet, up from 66 percent a season ago. Interestingly, he has made just 27.6 percent of his shots from 5-9 feet.
■ Perhaps some evidence of how Marcus Smart’s departure has affected the Celtics: After leading the league in loose balls recovered last season, the Celtics now rank 19th. And a season ago, the Celtics drew 0.57 charges per game, 10th in the NBA. This season, they’ve drawn just 0.2, ranking 25th. White drew 13 offensive fouls in 202223, but has just one this season.
■ His lack of charges aside, White’s value remains immense. Last season, the Celtics were 9.1 points per 100 possessions better with White on the court, the best differential on the team by 4.1 points. This season, his plus12.9 differential is 7.1 points per 100 possessions better than the next closest player, Payton Pritchard.
■ The Celtics lost three strong rebounders in Robert Williams, Grant Williams, and Smart, but their replacements have made up for it. Holiday is an elite rebounder for his position. He is averaging 7.2 per game, trailing only Mavericks star Luka Doncic among true guards. Although Porzingis’s rebounding percentage of 10.5 is near a career low, he remains effective on the glass. The Celtics rank 10th in second-chance points, up from 22nd a season ago. At the other end, they are giving up offensive rebounds on just 26.4 percent of shots, third fewest in the league.
■ Offensive rebounds frequently result in fouls on putback attempts, so Boston’s defensive rebounding efforts have helped it keep opponents off the free throw line. Teams are attempting just 0.21 free throws per field goal attempt against the Celtics, second fewest.
■ Yes, there’s some luck involved in the Celtics’ hot start. Opponents are shooting just 72.5 percent from the foul line against them. The Magic are the only other team that opponents are shooting below 75 percent against. The Nets have allowed about the same number of free throws per game as the Celtics, but their opponents’ 83.3 percentage has resulted in 3 more points per game, a substantial difference.
■ Yes, there’s some luck involved, Part 2. The Celtics are shooting a league-leading 37.3 percent from the 3-point line when four seconds or fewer remain on the shot clock. These late-clock offerings tend to be rushed or heaved up. Ten teams are shooting 25 percent or worse in these situations.
■ The Celtics have been pretty good in the clutch, with a 7-4 record. When games are within 5 points in the final five minutes, Boston’s true shooting percentage of 66.2 is well above its full-game average of 59.2. Its .738 clutch free throw rate leads the NBA, compared with .244 over a full game.
■ Yes, the Celtics’ offense can get stagnant, but that’s not always a bad thing. So far, 8.6 percent of their plays have come in isolation sets, fourth in the NBA. But they have several talented one-on-one scorers. They are scoring 0.99 points per possession in isolation, tied for eighth.
■ The NBA continues to treat the midrange shot with disdain, but it’s actually been pretty good for the Celtics. They are shooting 48 percent from 15-19 feet, ranking third.
■ It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise considering this team’s relentless reliance on 3-pointers and increased focus on post-ups, but the Celtics are registering a league-low six screen assists — a screen that directly leads to a made field goal — per game.
■ The Celtics have committed turnovers on 14.2 percent of their possessions, ranking 18th. Last season, they took better care of the ball, with a turnover percentage of 13.3 that ranked seventh. On the bright side, they are regrouping after their miscues and surrendering just 15.5 points off turnovers per game, fifth-fewest in the NBA.
■ They would prefer to be much more active forcing turnovers, too. Boston is forcing miscues on just 12.2 percent of possessions, ranking 28th.