Will Congress fail Ukraine? Putin and Xi are watching.
Before he dropped out of presidential contention in October, former vice president Mike Pence delivered a major foreign policy address in which he articulated the consensus Republican view on China. He called the world’s largest nation “the greatest strategic and economic threat facing the United States in the 21st century.”
But Pence also staked out a position that, though once widely accepted among both parties, has become more controversial in the GOP: He strongly urged the United States to maintain its support for Ukraine. Tying Russia’s expansionism in Europe to China’s ambitions in Asia, he noted that Beijing was watching the war in Ukraine “with great interest, assessing how much aggression the west will tolerate as it maps out its own intentions, especially when it comes to Taiwan.”
Which Republican Party, then, will come to the floor this month when Congress returns from its holiday break? The one that claims it wants the United States to project strength overseas and support its allies against international bullies? Or the one that has opposed the new military aid that Kyiv desperately needs to survive the Russian onslaught?
Congressional Republicans are blocking President Biden’s requested $101 billion foreign aid package — which includes funds for Israel, Taiwan, and US border security as well as for Ukraine — in exchange for sweeping changes to US immigration policies. Hostage taking is not unusual on Capitol Hill; in this case, it has enabled Republicans to pressure Democrats to consider policies they once deemed unacceptable. Those include tougher criteria for seeking asylum, making it easier to turn people away at the border, and hiring more border patrol agents and immigration judges.
Biden and other Democrats seem willing to accept compromises on some of those issues, in part to stem the migrant tide swamping shelter systems in blue states like Massachusetts as well as red ones. But they are also determined to defend Ukraine. And with their compromises in hand, Republicans should take yes for an answer, declare victory, and end their blockade of Ukraine aid as soon as Congress returns to work.
Since the Russian invasion began in early 2022, the United States has provided more than $75 billion in aid to Ukraine, most of it for military training and equipment. The Biden administration has asked for another $61 billion, most of it to help the Ukrainian military replenish a dwindling store of ammunition, artillery shells, anti-tank rockets, long-range rockets, and other equipment.
The aid is particularly critical now because the war has reached an uncomfortable stasis. A Ukrainian offensive last year proved largely ineffective. And with winter setting in, the Russian military seems dug in for the long haul despite Western sanctions, massive battlefield losses, and domestic protest. Helping Moscow’s cause have been its allies in Iran and North Korea, who have provided drones, surface-to-air missiles, artillery shells, and small-arms ammunition. Against such odds, Ukraine is just too small to hold out without continuing US support.
Yes, President Vladimir Putin of Russia has signaled a willingness to discuss a cease-fire, according to several reports. But for talks to succeed, if they actually happen, Putin must be convinced that Ukraine can continue to resist fiercely and indefinitely. And at the moment, he seems anything but so convinced. Instead, he brimmed with confidence at a recent year-end news conference, predicting that “the freebies” to Ukraine were “coming to an end little by little” and crowing that “victory will be ours.” Not the talk of someone looking to declare peace.
“Putin knows exactly what’s going on here,” Senator Michael Bennet, a centrist Democrat from Colorado, said on the Senate floor recently, referring to Republican opposition to Ukraine aid.
There is another reason for Congress to support aid to Ukraine ASAP: Trump, the Republicans’ likely standard-bearer in the November election, is signaling deep ambivalence about supporting Ukraine if he is elected in 2024. Perhaps following his lead, Republican voters are becoming more skeptical of the war, according to a recent Pew poll that found that nearly half of Republicans said that the United States is providing too much aid to Ukraine. By contrast, a majority of Democrats said aid to Ukraine was about right or should be increased.
If supporting a democratic country that borders NATO allies against an authoritarian invader isn’t reason enough to aid Ukraine, House Republicans should consider this: A significant portion of US aid to Ukraine returns to US manufacturers of missiles, antitank weapons, and other military equipment. If Republicans believe their own rhetoric about how Democrats have weakened the military industrial base, here’s a chance to strengthen it.
It has been a long-time Republican assertion that the Biden administration has been “weak” in its dealings with China, North Korea, Iran, and, yes, Russia. Do they, then, not agree with Pence that Beijing is watching the stalemate on Capitol Hill, assessing whether a Putin victory in Ukraine will bolster China’s goal of “reuniting” with Taiwan?
Even before Pence made his speech, Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina who is running second in many polls to Trump in the battle for the Republican nomination, made the same case. “A Russian defeat would be an enormous loss for China and a true victory for peace,” Haley said in a major speech on China in June. “Make no mistake: China is watching the war in Ukraine with great interest.”
Republicans should heed their own warnings. Democrats would be wise to meet them halfway. This is not the time or place for either party to demand a complete overhaul of US immigration laws. The Ukrainian winter is long and Putin seems prepared to wait patiently for Washington to falter. The time has come for congressional leaders in both parties to disappoint him.
This is not the time or place for either party to demand a complete overhaul of US immigration laws.