After US strikes, Iran’s proxies scale back base attacks
Lull suggests Tehran has some sway over militias
Iran has made a concerted effort to rein in militias in Iraq and Syria after the United States retaliated with a series of airstrikes for the killing of three US Army reservists this month.
Initially, there were regional concerns that the tit-for-tat violence would lead to an escalation of the Middle East conflict. But since the Feb. 2 US strikes, US officials say, there have been no attacks by Iran-backed militias on US bases in Iraq and only two minor ones in Syria.
Before then, the US military logged at least 170 attacks against US troops in four months, Pentagon officials said.
The relative quiet reflects decisions by both sides and suggests Iran does have some level of control over the militias.
The Biden administration has made it clear Iran would be held accountable for miscalculations and operations by proxy forces, but it has avoided any direct attack on Iran. The US response “may be having some effect,” General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., a retired head of the Pentagon’s Central Command, said in an interview.
“The question is are the militias attacking or not,” he added, “and at least for now, they are not.”
The lull also marks a sharp turnaround by Iran. Tehran had for months directed its regional proxies in Iraq and Syria to attack US bases in the Middle East as part of a wider battle against Israel, which is fighting Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
The US and Iranian officials interviewed for this article spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.
As the proxies’ attacks intensified, culminating in the deaths of three American soldiers, Iranian leaders worried that the level of autonomy provided to the militias was starting to backfire and might drive them into war, according to Iranian and US officials.
“They are scared of direct confrontation with the US, they know that if Americans are killed again it would mean war,” said Sina Azodi, a lecturer at George Washington University and an expert on Iran’s national security. “They had to put the brakes on the militia and convince them that a war with the US could harm Tehran first and then by extension the entire axis.”
The groups include Hezbollah in Lebanon; the Houthis in Yemen; militias in Iraq, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Hashd alShaabi; Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza; and militias in Syria. While Iran directs an overall strategy to the axis, the level of day-to-day control and coordination runs a spectrum. Tehran has most influence over Hezbollah, with the Syrian and Iraqi militia falling in the middle and the Houthis being the most autonomous.
In other developments in Gaza:
Jordan ramped up coordination with international partners to airdrop food and other supplies to people in the Gaza Strip this week, in a challenging effort that underlined the desperate need in Gaza as aid groups have warned of growing restrictions on their ability to distribute supplies. Planes from the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and France joined a Jordanian airdrop operation along the coast of Gaza on Tuesday, the Jordanian military said in a statement.
Israel and Hamas on Tuesday played down chances of an imminent breakthrough in talks for a cease-fire in Gaza, after President Biden on Monday said Israel has agreed to pause its offensive during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan if a deal is reached to release some hostages. Biden said he had been briefed on the status of talks by his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, but said his comments reflected his optimism for a deal, not that all the remaining hurdles had been overcome.