Giolito injury puts Sox rotation off-kilter
FORT MYERS, Fla. — Alex Cora usually arrives for his morning meeting with reporters with a hop in his step and a smile on his face.
Not Tuesday. He was all business. “Got news on Lucas,” Cora said.
All of it was bad. Lucas Giolito, the veteran pitcher the Red Sox signed to stabilize their rotation, felt something in his right elbow during his last start, and the initial diagnosis showed a significant injury.
“Obviously it’s not a good day for us,” Cora said.
This was at 10:02 a.m., before the sun chased away the haze around JetBlue Park.
It took only 26 minutes for ESPN’s ubiquitous Jeff Passan to report that Giolito had a partially torn ligament and flexor strain and could need season-ending surgery.
Giolito and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow were careful to say that no decisions had been reached and that it would take a few days to get a clearer picture.
But those words did not have a hopeful tone.
“Extremely disappointing,” Giolito said. “I haven’t dealt with a serious injury in a very long time.”
The Sox could try rest and a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection but those measures often only delay the inevitable. Tommy John surgery is the probable outcome, and it would put Giolito out for this season and possibly some of 2025.
Giolito agreed to a one-year, $18 million deal in January. It came with a $1 million buyout or a $19 million option for 2025.
It’s a pretty safe bet he’ll be picking up that option now.
Giolito was coming off a terrible season that included being traded from the White Sox to the Angels, then being claimed off waivers by the Guardians. Fifteen losses and a 4.88 ERA were the result.
But even with that season factored in, Giolito averaged 175 innings and 31 starts over the previous four full seasons and had a 4.11 ERA since 2019. The Sox needed the reliability he pro
vided.
Giolito, in turn, needed a fresh start. Now he’s looking at months of rehab.
“It’s obviously not fun to deal with,” he said.
Breslow should have been allowed to sign another reliable starter, especially considering he had already traded Chris Sale to the Braves for infielder Vaughn Grissom.
But “full throttle” proved to be more like half-speed.
So what now? Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell are still free agents. So are Mike Clevinger, Zack Greinke, Rich Hill, Michael Lorenzen, and Noah Syndergaard.
It’s easy to suggest the Sox should sign Montgomery, who’s been a better version of Giolito in recent years.
But Montgomery didn’t wait this long for a team to get desperate. He’d prefer to play for a contender and according to agent Scott Boras has multiple teams interested.
Snell would require an even bigger investment. The others are wild cards, although Lorenzen has some promise.
Breslow suggested the Sox could get by with who they have.
“Over the last couple of weeks I do think it’s become evident that there are a number of guys that we have in camp that appear ready to take a step forward,” he said.
“We’ve also maintained that if there was an opportunity to improve the team through some external acquisitions that we need to be responsible. Trying to track that down, as well.”
The opportunity to improve the rotation has existed since November and the Sox have passed outside of signing Giolito.
Ownership has been widely criticized by the fan base and media and not budged. They offer platitudes and empty promises in return.
Will Giolito’s injury change anything? That seems unlikely.
Montgomery is a fine pitcher. But he’s opened the last three seasons as a No. 3 or 4 starter. He’s never been an All-Star or received so much as one downballot vote for the Cy Young Award.
The notion that he alone would turn the Sox into a contender is a reach.
Breslow spoke about Josh
Winckowski pitching well as a starter in spring training and being impressed with righthander Cooper Criswell.
“Best-case scenario, these guys emerge as bona fide starters,” Breslow said. “Now that we’ve had a chance to see them with a few weeks under our belt, I don’t think that’s so far from reality.”
I asked Breslow if going into the season without adding to the rotation was viable.
“I would be comfortable,” he said. “I think there’s some real optimism around this group. But I’m also constantly trying to evaluate if there are other options.”
There are, of course. It’s a question of whether ownership wants to invest more money in a team that even with Giolito was projected to win 78-81 games by most statistical models.
It’s more likely the Sox sign one of the low-priced free agents and count on Breslow and pitching coach Andrew Bailey to hold the rotation together.
Cora was right. It was not a good day.