Portugal sees a slow drift toward political right in exit poll
Voters discontent over cost of living and low wages
LISBON — An exit poll in Portugal’s general election Sunday suggested that the race was too close to call, with two moderate mainstream parties apparently poised to gather the most votes amid a predicted surge in support for a radical right populist party that could place third.
The poll predicted 29-33 percent of the vote for the centerright Democratic Alliance, a grouping led by the Social Democratic Party. The center-left Socialist Party gathered 25-29 percent, the poll indicated.
Populist party Chega (Enough) may have got 14-17 percent in third place, it suggested, up from 7 percent at the last election in 2022, in a drift to the political right witnessed elsewhere in the European Union. Fifteen other parties picked up the rest.
The poll by Portugal’s Catholic University was published by public broadcaster RTP and, in previous elections, has proved largely accurate.
The Social Democrats and Socialists have alternated in power for decades, but they have never come up against such a strong challenge from a hard-right party.
Social Democrat leader Luis Montenegro, who likely would become prime minister if his alliance wins, ruled out during campaigning the possibility of teaming up with Chega, some of whose policy proposals are unpalatable for many Portuguese.
But if Montenegro is unable to assemble a majority government, his hand could be forced, leaving Chega as a kingmaker.
Chega leader Andre Ventura, a former law professor and television soccer pundit, has said he is prepared to drop some of his party’s most controversial proposals — such as chemical castration for some sex offenders and the introduction of life prison sentences — if that enables his party’s inclusion in a possible governing alliance with other right-of-center parties.
His insistence on national sovereignty instead of closer European Union integration and his plan to grant police the right to strike are other issues that could thwart his ambitions to enter a government coalition, however.
Ventura was quick to react to the exit poll, telling reporters awaiting official results that the ballot marked the end of a twoparty political system in Portugal after what he called his party's “landmark result.”
Chega “stands ready to be part of a government,” Ventura said.
Chega ran its campaign largely on an anticorruption platform. Graft scandals triggered the early election after former Socialist leader and prime minister António Costa resigned in November after eight years in his post amid a corruption investigation involving his chief of staff. Costa hasn’t been accused of any crime.
That episode appeared to have hurt the Socialists at the ballot box.
Public frustration with politics-as-usual had already been percolating before the outcries over graft. Low wages and a high cost of living — worsened last year by surges in inflation and interest rates — coupled with a housing crisis and failings in public health care contributed to the disgruntlement.
The discontent has been further stirred up by Chega, which potentially could gain the most from the current public mood.
Sonia Ferreira, a 55-year-old financial manager voting in Lisbon, said the ballot is “decisive” because the continent needs to halt the growth of hard-right parties.
“We are seeing very extremist movements across the European Union and we must all be very careful,” she said.
Meanwhile, voters have expressed alarm at Portugal’s living standards as financial pressures mount.
An influx of foreign real estate investors and tourists seeking short-term rentals brought a spike in house prices, especially in big cities such as the capital, Lisbon, where many locals are being priced out of the market.