Opposition projected to win parliament in S. Korean election
The president’s domestic agenda could be at risk
SEOUL — In the two years since he was elected, President Yoon Suk Yeol has made his mark in foreign policy, forging deeper ties with the United States and Japan. But his business-friendly domestic agenda has been stalled by his own missteps and an opposition-controlled parliament.
Now, Yoon is facing the threat of being a lame duck for the remainder of his single, fiveyear term.
In a parliamentary election held Wednesday, voters were projected to have handed Yoon and his party a crushing defeat, giving the opposition one of its biggest electoral victories in recent decades. Polls closed at 6 p.m., and official results were expected Thursday morning.
Dozens of parties were vying for the 300 seats in the National Assembly, South Korea’s singlechamber legislature. However, the contest was largely between Yoon’s conservative People Power Party and the main opposition camp, the liberal Democratic Party.
This was the first general election since Yoon won the presidency in 2022, beating Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party by a razor-thin margin. While the results will decide the makeup of the Assembly for the next four years, they also serve as a verdict on the two rival leaders.
Exit polls conducted Wednesday by South Korea’s three major TV stations predicted that Yoon’s People Power Party and an affiliate would win no more than 105 of the 300 seats in the Assembly. Lee’s Democratic Party and a partner were projected to garner as many as 197. A separate exit poll by cable channel JTBC predicted a similar outcome.
For the past two weeks, candidates have greeted voters at subway stations, woven through their districts on trucks mounted with loudspeakers, and even knelt and bowed before voters, as is customary in the country. All that canvassing stopped as voters began filing into balloting stations across the country at 6 a.m. Wednesday, which was declared a national holiday for the election.
The outcome of the contest is unlikely to have any immediate impact on Yoon’s efforts to expand security cooperation with Washington and Tokyo to deter North Korea, as foreign policy is concentrated in the hands of the president.
But Yoon’s long-stalled domestic agenda — corporate tax cuts and other business-friendly measures as well as his efforts to drastically increase the number of doctors — looks increasingly imperiled.
In contrast, Lee is likely to get a big push from the election if the exit poll projections are accurate. He hopes to run for president again in 2027.
The rivalry between the two leaders has become symptomatic of the deep political polarization in South Korea.
Lee’s party billed the election as an opportunity for South Koreans to punish Yoon over everything from rising consumer prices to allegations of corruption and abuse of power involving his family and the government.
“We must serve a warning that if the worker is not faithful enough, he can be driven out of his job,” Lee said this week, a comment that South Korean news media said hinted at the possibility of impeaching Yoon if the opposition wins enough seats.
Under Yoon, Lee and his wife have been scrutinized by prosecutors and now face various criminal charges. The opposition, for its part, has passed bills that mandate investigations into allegations of corruption involving Yoon’s family and former prosecutors and judges. The president has vetoed those bills.
Each side, analysts said, focused on demonizing the other instead of offering policy proposals. Yoon’s party called Lee and his party “criminals.” The opposition warned that South Korea under Yoon was turning into a “dictatorship,” accusing him of using prosecutors and state regulators to suppress unfriendly journalists and politicians; at times, Yoon’s bodyguards have even gagged and carried away citizens who shouted criticism at him.
“I have never seen an election like this: No campaign promise or policy has become an election issue, except for the forces from the opposite poles clashing to win at all costs,” said Heo Jinjae, an analyst at Gallup Korea.
For one voter, in Seoul, the capital, the choice was between bad and worse.